Gold, copper, palladium…. While the Cac 40 index fell into the “bear market” on Monday March 7, with a decline of more than 20% compared to its peak of January 5, many metals see their prices fly away, galvanized by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, described as ” transformer for base metals by the American bank Citigroup. For the first time in eighteen months, futures contracts on an ounce of gold jumped above 2,000 dollars, while copper and palladium are at an all-time high, at 10,835 dollars per ton and $3,442.47 per ounce respectively. ” Low surface inventories and the fact that Russia accounts for around 40% of global palladium mining supply cause the price of the white metal to surge “, explained UBS in a note to its clients last week, adding that prices should be very volatile in the days and weeks to come. While Moscow plays a smaller role in global copper production, accounting for only 4%, ” all disruption of supply in this country is detrimental “Said UBS, which foresees a deficit market this year. In the short term, the focus is on seasonal inventory accumulation in China. ” At 284,000 tonnes, copper stocks on exchanges are already down 43% from the five-year average in February, increasing the sensitivity of the copper price to further stock reductions from the second quarter. “says UBS.
What about oil prices? Since 1er January, the price of a barrel of Brent, produced in the North Sea, climbed 65%. It hit a new peak overnight at 139.13 dollars, reflecting an increase of 18% compared to Friday’s closing price. It is quite simply at its highest level since July 2008. The Texas reference, WTI, has jumped to more than 133 dollars. This surge also hides extreme volatility. Commodity expectations have been “ transformed by military activities in Ukraine and have become more bullishwrote Citigroup in its quarterly update. Whatever the outcome, the world will have changed even if the current conflict reaches a point of stabilization. According to US investment bank JPMorgan Chase, the price of Brent could end the year at $185 if Russian supplies continue to be disrupted, while a hedge fund has pointed out that a barrel at $200 is become a possibility
Major obstacle
Agricultural commodities are not spared. Day after day, the price of wheat breaks records. The ton of wheat deliverable in May came close to 400 euros, an unprecedented level, and the trend remains bullish. The harvest campaign is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere, the main producing area, and stocks of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, which account for 30% of world exports, are blocked by a major obstacle, the Black Sea. ” The exit of the stocks which remain in Ukraine and Russia by this way is very threatenedsays Jean-Jacques Hervé, director general of the NGO Action against Hunger to our colleagues from Paris. Ships cannot receive insurance guarantees for passage through the Black Sea because there are threats of bombing, mines, etc. »