To analyse. The government has a few months to define its transport infrastructure priorities for the next five to ten years. It would even be necessary, ideally, to have visibility over four five-year terms, estimates the report that the Infrastructure Orientation Council (COI) is about to submit to the Prime Minister. Already, a form of consensus seems to be taking shape through this document: the priority goes to investment in rail to put an end to the aging of the French network and give it the means to take charge of a larger part of the transport of people and goods. The train thus symbolizes the hope placed in public transport to succeed in reducing the sector’s carbon emissions. A projection that is partly a mirage!
“Public transport accounts for 80% of conferences and reports, but only 10% to 20% of mobility”, reminds the economist Yves Crozet, professor emeritus at Sciences Po Lyon, who has just written a note entitled “Climate commitments and mobility: in search of the common good”, for the TDIE association, which brings together all the actors, public and private, who interested in modes of transport. The expert notes that, over the past fifteen years, despite the new lines, the rail market share has only increased by 1 point (from 10% to 11%) for travellers. On the goods side, it even fell by 2 points (from 10% to 8%). Public spending on public transport comes up against what economists call “diminishing returns” : in Europe, the network of high-speed lines has tripled in number of kilometres, but traffic has only doubled. Because the last lines or extensions are not necessarily the busiest.
It is therefore essential to take an interest in road mobility, which represents between 75% and 85% of uses, and not only by setting the goal of electrifying the vehicle fleet. “By 2030, the renewal of this will be modest”, warns Yves Crozet, because electric cars are more expensive. In fact, in 2022, registrations in France fell further, by 7.8%. The number of kilometers traveled per capita each year peaked in the early 2000s and has stabilized since.
“Orienting Behaviors”
“The time has come to ask ourselves the question frankly: what becomes of the right to mobility with a climate change that imposes sobriety on us? », sums up Philippe Duron, former deputy (PS) and ex-mayor of Caen, now co-president of the TDIE association. Could the right to mobility, installed by the LOTI law of 1982, confirmed by the LOM law of 2019, be called into question? For Yves Crozet, it will evolve. Until now, public policies have aimed to encourage and facilitate mobility. They must now gradually lead citizens to consider them as a common good, which must be saved and preserved, rather than as an unlimited right.
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