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Full employment, an accessible horizon in 2027?

The decline continues at an increasingly slow pace. In the second quarter, the number of job seekers without any activity – listed in category A of Pôle emploi – fell again, to just over 3.16 million across the country. (including overseas), according to data released on Wednesday July 27 by Dares, the department responsible for studies at the Ministry of Labor. We have to go back to early 2012 to find lower figures. The decrease recorded between the beginning of April and the end of June is much less marked than during the first three months of the year: –0.8% against –5%. Despite the cooling of growth, the labor market is holding up, but doubts are growing about the robustness of the levee.

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For the first time since mid-2020, young people have not benefited from the drop observed during the quarter that has just ended: the numbers of under 25s, in category A, have, in fact, stabilized in a city. However, if we think over one year, their situation has improved overall (–22.8%), largely thanks to the support measures introduced at the start of the health crisis (bonuses for hiring apprentices , personalized courses for those who have dropped out of the school system, etc.). The other age groups also benefited from the dynamic at work.

On the other hand, the trend is less favorable when the focus widens to people who are looking for a job while having worked (categories B and C): their number admittedly declined in the second quarter in France (– 3.2 %), but it is still slightly higher than a year ago. In total, the list of job seekers, active or not (categories A, B and C) is reduced throughout France (– 1.7% in the second quarter, almost – 9% over twelve months), while while remaining impressive (5.43 million). The evolution is positive, but there is still a long way to go to get out of mass unemployment.

Multitudes of unknowns

On BFM-TV, the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, welcomed the statistics published by Dares on Wednesday. The three-color economy, he said, “create jobs”despite all the clouds that are gathering (higher prices for energy and many other products, “geopolitical tensions linked to the war in Ukraine”). According to Urssaf, declarations of hiring for more than a month (excluding temporary workers) increased by 3.6% in the second quarter, after a slight erosion between the beginning of January and the end of March. “The society of full employment (…) is available », added Mr. Dussopt, recalling the objective set by Emmanuel Macron: to reduce the unemployment rate to 5% in 2027, i.e. 2.3 points less than today. This is “within reach”had hammered Elisabeth Borne, the head of government, during her general policy statement, delivered on July 6 in the National Assembly. ” We can [y] go (…) at the end of term”added the President of the Republic during his television interview on July 14.

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