The deficit of the pension system does not threaten all the plans: if the losses of the Old-age insurance are likely to “widen continuously” in the future, the complementary funds and those of the liberals “will accumulate reserves”, according to a note of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR) consulted Monday by AFP.
The stated objective of past reforms, such as that proposed by Emmanuel Macron (with the postponement of the legal age to 65), the financial balance of the pension system is above all an issue for the basic social security scheme.
On the basis of the current rules and its latest long-term projections, the COR has divided the many existing funds into four groups, starting with that of the basic schemes for private sector employees, of which the Old-Age Insurance (Cnav) constitutes the resistance.
Results: Barring a sustainably more flourishing economy, this public bloc would represent a growing share of national wealth and its deficit would widen continuously, in the worst case up to 0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2070 – i.e. between 30 and 40 billion euros.
The outlook is diametrically opposed for supplementary schemes for private sector employees, where Agirc-Arrco takes the lion’s share. They have already returned to surplus last year and their financial situation should improve continuously from the end of the decade, whatever the scenario.
Invest in real estate from €1,000. Our rankings of the best SCPIs
These funds would therefore accumulate reserves, at the cost, however, of a sharp drop in pensions relative to wages, which would more than compensate for the fall in the number of workers per withdrawal.
Same horizon for non-salaried workers, where the liberals will take precedence over farmers: return to equilibrium at the beginning of the 2030s then continuous improvement whatever the scenario, with accumulation of reserves.
There remains the particular case of civil servants’ pensions and special schemes, the balance of which is guaranteed by the State, with the notable exception of the fund for territorial and hospital workers (CNRACL), caught in the trap of aging demography.