Future technology and job engine: Can hydrogen save the car industry?

In spite of all government aid: electromobility has not yet prevailed. But now, because of the e-hype, there is a risk of a blatant job cut – and with it great economic and social damage. So what to do? The solution is: hydrogen.

In German environmental and mobility policy – almost unnoticed by the Corona crisis – a revolutionary change in knowledge and attitude has taken place. In addition to battery-powered electromobility, hydrogen has become a source of energy for industry and transport. This basically affects the German auto industry – and positively.

Germany has pledged to become "clean" by 2050 by strictly limiting carbon dioxide emissions in the Paris climate protection agreement. From then on, chemical, steel and cement plants may only produce in a climate-neutral manner. Traffic fleets on land, on water and in the air have to be converted accordingly and from then on house owners have to heat in a climate-neutral manner. All of this has consequences for Germany and its key industries, including the automotive industry, which accounts for around 20 percent of the gross domestic product.

The death of the incinerator has begun

In addition to the "main sinners" of energy and heat generation and agriculture, the transport sector is responsible for 20 percent of man-made CO2 emissions, and the car fleet alone with 12 percent. Since the car – especially the diesel – has become a major target of public criticism, European environmental policy focuses above all on strict targets for exhaust emission limits for new registrations.

The goal is to gradually replace the European combustion fleet of 220 million cars with electric cars from 2020. If the target is missed, manufacturers face severe penalties. For 2030, the European exhaust gas limit values ​​for cars were set at 35 percent, so low compared to 2020, that they can only be reached by battery electric cars or hybrids with an additional combustion engine as an auxiliary unit. The requirements have heralded the death of the combustion engine – the pillar for 100 years and the guarantee of success in German automotive history.

An entire industry is at risk of ruin

Because the regulatory access of EU politics has become a stranglehold for the German manufacturers with their luxury vehicles: hold on to the production of your car and SUV range with combustion engines, Fines of over 80 billion euros threaten – Volkswagen alone 4.5 billion euros a year. Without adjustments, it could ruin an entire industry. Or – like VW from 2026 – it fully relies on electric cars. In this case, however, it could also run the risk of collapsing because burners have so far dominated mass business in the global and domestic markets.

Much to the chagrin of the politicians who founded the National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) with confidence in May 2010. Their goal was to bring one million electric cars to German roads by 2020 with high government purchase premiums. This project flopped: On April 1, 2020, the number of electrically powered cars was just 284,000 cars, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) – and there are electric cars that are equipped as hybrids with a combustion engine for all emergencies. even counted.

The double U-turn

It was therefore clear that Germany would not become a lead market for electric mobility in the future either. And that despite the billions of government purchase premiums and investments in the e-filling station network since 2010.

What a dilemma – also for politicians, who solved the problem elegantly with a double U-turn:

  • In the confusion of the coalition negotiations, the e-mobility strategy was cashed in silently and in September 2019 – in its place – the National Platform for the Future of Mobility (NPM) was launched. After that, the mobility of the future should continue to be electric, but there was no longer any talk of electric cars based on electricity as the sole drive medium. Word had got around that electric cars would never replace the total inventory of 47 million cars in Germany, 220 million in Europe or the 1.6 billion automobiles in the world.
  • This volte offered the opportunity to leave the impasse of pure electric cars and open the way to open-drive mobility technologies – without losing face.

Hope and savior: hydrogen

This cleared the way for recourse to a well-known energy source: hydrogen – "greener", CO2-free, made with sustainable energy from wind and sun. A guarantee of climate-friendly mobility as well as problem solvers and "savers" especially for the German automotive industry.

The Federal Government adopted the "National Hydrogen Strategy" in June 2020, not without resistance from environmental associations and from within its own ranks. With the use of around ten billion euros in funding, Berlin wants to make hydrogen the number one energy source in industrial production and transport. Hydrogen should become an export hit and Germany should secure a global pioneering role in this technology. In addition, EU grants amount to tens of billions from the Corona rescue package for the European economy.

Hydrogen has a reputation as a technical and economic all-rounder. These are just a few of the advantages over battery electromobility:

Hydrogen can

  • Drive vehicles of all kinds in an environmentally friendly manner and replace fossil fuels in industry and supply households with heat,
  • can be used in various forms as gas or liquidity, it can be refueled quickly and can use the existing petrol station infrastructure,
  • allows ranges in traffic with normal refueling times up to 1000 kilometers,
  • saves the burners in the old stock as in new vehicles in the auto industry, thus protecting the industry from the collapse of employment.

But as the saying goes: No rose without thorns. Unfortunately, the flip side of the coin also shows that hydrogen is – according to current knowledge – more expensive to manufacture and less efficient in energy balance than comparable energy sources.

For the economy and the common good

But despite these disadvantages, hydrogen is still the most promising solution for environmentally friendly mobility without CO2 emissions, seen by the economist. And also the best solution to save the German auto industry from the otherwise forced transformation crash and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Helmut Becker writes a monthly column about the car market for n-tv.de. He was chief economist at BMW for 24 years and heads the "Institute for Economic Analysis and Communication (IWK)". He advises companies on automotive-specific issues.

What counts in the public interest is the economy and the common good, not the lack of precision in cost accounting. A collapse of the auto industry would cost the German economy significantly more than it would have to subsidize hydrogen as a drive medium. Corona has impressively disclosed the cost accounting of a shutdown.

The fact is: With the hydrogen strategy, German politicians have laid the foundation for CO2-free mobility and thus for safeguarding the German automotive industry and the old automotive stock. By 2030, the federal government plans to build production / electrolysis capacities of initially 5 gigawatts and by 2040 of 10 gigawatts; that corresponds to 10 nuclear power plant blocks. That will not be enough, but it is well known that Rome was not built in a day.

. (tagsToTranslate) Economy (t) Helmut Becker (t) Auto industry (t) Electromobility (t) Corona viruses (t) Subsidies