Wednesday March 17th 2021
GDP forecast corrected
Economists see third wave as a risk
In the autumn of last year, the economic experts are still assuming an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent for 2021. In the meantime, vaccinations and a possible opening of the economy are giving hope, but economists are still revising their forecast downwards.
The economy is more skeptical about the economy in Germany. The economy will only grow by 3.1 percent this year, said the Council of Experts, which advises the federal government. So far, the four economists had expected 3.7 percent growth for 2021, after an economic slump of 4.9 percent in the corona and recession year 2020.
"The greatest risk for the economy in Germany is a possible third wave of infections – if it would lead to restrictions or even closures in the industry," said committee member Volker Wieland. The economy should reach its pre-crisis level at the turn of the year 2021/22 and grow by four percent next year.
The economists are a tad more optimistic with their forecast than the federal government, which expects 3.0 percent growth in 2021. The experts consider the economy to be quite robust despite the virus pandemic. Above all, industrial production is running comparatively well, since, unlike in spring 2020, the international supply chains have so far been largely intact and demand for goods from Germany is increasing thanks to the recovery in the global economy.
Doubts about achieving the vaccination goal
"In contrast, the economic situation for personal services remains very tense." Therefore, the gross domestic product is likely to fall by around two percent in the current first quarter, after 0.3 percent growth at the end of 2020. In the course of the easing that is to be expected, the situation is likely to improve in the next few months. Economists advocate increased vaccination. "In order for Germany to reach the EU target of vaccinating 70 percent of the adult population by the end of September 2021, the current number of daily vaccinations in the vaccination centers must be increased by 50 percent," said Veronika Grimm.
In addition, general practitioners and specialists should be involved. The achievement of the vaccination goal, however, seems rather doubtful. Because the federal government has temporarily suspended the vaccine of the vaccine from AstraZeneca. After Lars Feld left the council, only Grimm, Monika Schnitzer, Achim Truger and, since 2013, senior Wieland, belong to the council. The four of them still have to choose a boss from their ranks. Talks on this have not yet led to an agreement. The last chairman of the body was Feld, who left at the end of February after ten years and two terms. CDU / CSU wanted to grant him a third term, which the SPD blocked.
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