The Ukraine war instigated by Russia is fueling the debate about autonomy from Russian natural gas and other fossil fuels. Bavaria’s Prime Minister Söder envisages sticking to nuclear power as an alternative. The government and experts do not see this as a solution to the problem – for good reason. An overview of important aspects.
The debate
The Russian invasion of Ukraine not only shakes international diplomacy, but also scratches the issue of security of supply, especially in Germany. Should Germany refrain from importing fossil fuels from Russia in order to put even more economic pressure on the Kremlin? Or is it ultimately Russia itself that is turning off the gas supply to Europe in order to give more weight to its demands regarding Ukraine?
Germany’s dependence on Russian energy imports recently led to discussions about extending the lifespan of the local nuclear power plants. The advocate is, for example, Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder, who reiterated his demand on “ntv Frühstart” in the morning not to shut down any coal or nuclear power plants in Germany, at least for a transitional period. The CSU politician explained that nuclear power was secure in supply and also “climate-friendly and relatively cheap”: “That’s why I think it’s a mistake to just rush out now.”
The traffic light government sees things differently. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck, for example, stated in the “early start” that he did not expect the nuclear power plants to remain in operation beyond the end of 2022. A term extension is off the table, said the Green politician. Against the background of the Ukraine war, it is true that there are no bans on thinking about nuclear power either. “For next winter, a longer term won’t help us at all.”
The German energy mix
In Germany, the share of nuclear energy in the amount of electricity produced domestically has gradually decreased since the decision to phase out nuclear power in 2011. There are currently three power plants in operation that are scheduled to be shut down by December 31, 2022 at the latest: Isar 2, Emsland and Neckarwestheim 2. According to the Federal Statistical Office the share of nuclear energy in the German electricity mix in 2020 was 12.1 percent. Compared to the previous year, this is a decrease of 14.2 percent.
In the Corona crisis year 2020, the nuclear power plants fed 60.9 terawatt hours into the German power grid. For comparison: coal provided 124.9 terawatt hours, natural gas 68.3 and renewable energy sources (wind power, photovoltaics, etc.) 236.5.
According to the Federal Environment Agency, the share of nuclear energy in primary energy consumption in Germany fell from 12.2 percent in 2005 to 5.9 percent in 2020. In contrast, the share of renewables rose from 5.3 percent to 16.5 percent in the same period. The primary energy consumption, which is understood as meaning the energy content of all energy sources used in Germany, has remained at a relatively high level for gas for years. In 2020 it was 26.5 percent.
Even if the importance of renewables has increased again and again in recent years, Germany remains largely dependent on fossil fuels – and thus also on corresponding imports from Russia. The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) states that Russian natural gas supplies account for just over 50 percent of German consumption. Russia’s contribution to oil is 34 percent. The Federal Statistical Office recently put the proportion for hard coal at 57 percent.
The heating dilemma
Every second household in Germany heats with gas. According to the Federal office of statistics the share of the energy source in the so-called heating structure in apartments was 49.5 percent in 2020. Heating oil came to 25 percent, district heating to 14.1 percent. Electricity and electric heat pumps only accounted for 2.6 percent each. The practical contribution that electricity generated from nuclear energy makes and could make to heating is negligible in light of current housing construction.
Against the background of the current debate, the construction and energy expert Lamia Messari-Becker complained in an interview with the dpa: “Unlike in the case of electricity generation, politics has Energy transition in the heating sector miserably neglected for years.” Even if the necessary expansion of renewable energies takes time, there are a number of measures that can be implemented in the short term. Municipalities should draw up heat plans, for example, to make waste heat from industry and commerce usable for heating, explained Messari-Becker. Also the number of so-called combined heat and power plants could be increased relatively easily.
The problem with the fuel rods
In addition to the relatively small importance of nuclear power in the supply of electricity and heat, a possible extension of nuclear power plant runtimes encounters very practical problems. A spokeswoman for Eon’s nuclear subsidiary PreussenElektra pointed out in an interview with the “Rheinische Post” that the delivery of the new fuel rods required in this case would take time: “After an initial assessment, we assume that fresh fuel elements will be in a good 1, 5 years could be available.” In addition, the corporations may have to look for new uranium suppliers. “In the last few years of operation of our power plants, we obtained the uranium required for the fuel elements from Kazakhstan and Russia and in small quantities from Canada,” said the spokeswoman.
A test report from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Environment also states: The procurement, production and nuclear approval for the production of new fuel elements for a functional reactor core usually takes 18 to 24 months. This means that an extension of the runtimes of the three nuclear power plants would not bring any additional amounts of electricity in the winter of 2022/2023, but only in autumn 2023 at the earliest after refilling with newly manufactured fuel rods. In addition, the current nuclear power plants could not be operated beyond this year on the basis of the applicable Atomic Energy Act. It would be necessary to change the law and allocate new amounts of electricity.
The security policy dimension
If nuclear power were to be extended, security would have to be compromised in the long term, Habeck emphasized in “ntv Frühstart” – and that in a situation in which Ukrainian nuclear power plants were being shot at for the first time and there were concerns about Russian cyber attacks. “In this consideration, we have a minimal increase in electricity production for a maximum of high security risks,” said the minister.
“We are currently experiencing how a war with conventional weapons against nuclear plants can put the civilian use of nuclear energy in a previously unimaginable risk situation for people and the environment,” said the President of the Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Wolfram König, in a statement statement off.
The conclusion
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday that despite the Russian war of aggression, Germany would continue to rely on energy imports from Russia. “There is currently no other way to ensure Europe’s supply of energy for heating, for mobility, for power supply and for industry,” said the SPD politician. These are of “essential importance for the services of general interest and the daily life” of the citizens.
According to experts, Germany can certainly do without Russian natural gas for the time being. Until next winter, however, other gas sources and alternative energy sources will be needed that could help with the electricity and heat supply. The Federal Ministry of Economics is also examining comprehensive measures to reduce gas consumption. In a paper published over the weekend by an “ad hoc project group on gas reduction”, it says, among other things, that a solar roof requirement for new commercial and private buildings should be considered. A “waste heat usage obligation” is also planned.
According to the Minister for Nuclear Safety, Steffi Lemke, longer nuclear power plant runtimes are neither sensible nor justifiable. “A small contribution to energy supply would be opposed to major economic, legal and security risks,” she said today. And even a lobbyist in the industry has to admit that an extension would not have the desired effect. “Because only so few reactors are still connected to the grid, they will not be able to replace the loss of Russian gas,” Euratom boss Yves Desbazeille told the “Frankurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. “It would look a little better if the reactors that were last shut down were reconnected to the grid.” But even that is not enough to fill the resulting gap.
It would take a “chain reaction of miracles” to extend the operation of the German nuclear power plants, analyzed “Die Zeit” last week. In addition to the lack of fuel, the newspaper referred to imminent shortages of trained personnel and cost-intensive maintenance management. The nuclear power plant operators are therefore simply not logistically prepared to keep the operation running longer.