Germany also ran: ESC: Bing knows the winner

Microsoft's search engine Bing predicts the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest. The prognosis is constantly being adjusted and a head-to-head race between two candidates is emerging. The German singer is – not there.

Last year, Microsoft, with the help of its search engine Bing, accurately predicted not only the German World Cup title but also the winners of the knockout games before the final. In a blog entry, the programmers explained how they make forecasts and that the outcome of a singing competition is relatively predictable compared to a soccer tournament. Microsoft had already proven this on the US casting show "The Voice".

It is therefore all the more interesting what Bing is predicting for the final of the Eurovision Song Contest on May 23 in Vienna. Microsoft evaluates information from the web and social networks to get a current picture of the mood. Together with data from previous competitions, the "Bing Prediction Engine" then generates the current favorite and the result is updated regularly. To call up the latest version of the ESC forecast, it is sufficient to enter "Eurovision" in the Bing search.

Change in leadership, but not a decision

On May 18th, when Microsoft presented the project in its News Center, the Italian trio Il Volo was still ahead with an 18 percent probability of victory. It was followed by the Swedish pop singer Måns Petter Albert Sahlén Zelmerlöw (16.1 percent) and the Australian Guy Sebastian (13.3 percent). The prospects for the Russian representative Polina Gagarina (11.4 percent) and Elhaida Dani from Albania (11.2 percent) were also not bad.

Shortly before the decision in Vienna, the order has changed. Now the Swede is the Bing prediction's favorite with 17.1 percent, but his lead over the Italian competitor is only 0.5 percent. The Russian has also improved and is now the most promising candidate behind the top duo with 13.2 percent. In contrast, Australia (10.1 percent) and Albania (9.9 percent) fell further behind. The German hope Ann Sophie gives Bing almost no chance of victory, with 0.4 percent, she is more of a candidate for the red lantern.