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Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) won a crucial election in the Berlin-based state of Brandenburg on Sunday, beating the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) by a few points. The unexpected victory offers a respite for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is facing a nationwide decline in popularity.
An unexpected victory for the SPD
According to initial estimates, the SPD won between 31 and 32 percent of the vote, compared to 29 to 30 percent for the AfD. Although the far right has made a new breakthrough in this region of eastern Germany, this result remains below expectations for the AfD, which had been leading in the polls until recently. The head of the regional government, Dietmar Woidke, who has governed Brandenburg since 2013, seems to be the key to this success. Popular, he had made this election a plebiscite on his personality and a barrier against the far right. He had warned that he would withdraw if he did not come out on top.
Olaf Scholz under pressure despite everything
Even though the regional victory offers a moment of respite for Chancellor Scholz, he remains under pressure domestically. His three-party coalition, made up of the Greens and the Liberals, is increasingly divided. In addition, issues such as immigration and security, which are particularly sensitive in the former GDR, continue to fuel the AfD’s rise to power. This context could weigh heavily on the 2025 parliamentary elections. “Of course, we have to help people, but we can’t take in too many of them here,” says Edeltraud Wendland, 82, in Potsdam. The country has a record number of refugees in total, with 3.5 million people, including 1.2 million Ukrainians.
A probable coalition
Despite the AfD’s gains, the Social Democrats appear well positioned to continue governing Brandenburg. According to initial estimates, a coalition with the conservative CDU, who won 12% of the vote, and the Greens (5%) seems likely. The German Social Democratic Party thus hopes to stabilize its regional hold in the face of the rise of the extreme right, while pursuing moderate immigration management policies.
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