Germany: Tensions within the coalition around Scholz’s attitude on Ukraine


by Paul Carl

BERLIN (Reuters) – Discontent is growing among Social Democratic Party (SPD) partners in Germany’s coalition government over what they see as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s war-handling lapses in Ukraine, an internal divide which risks undermining the unity displayed so far by the Western powers vis-à-vis Russia.

The voluntarism displayed by the Chancellor at the very start of the crisis – with the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project linking Russia to Germany two days before the start of the Russian offensive and the announcement of a sharp increase in military spending in the days following the invasion of Ukraine – has now given way to dithering, according to its coalition partners.

Seven weeks after the start of the war, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats of the FDP, coalition partners of the SPD of Olaf Scholz, are irritated that Berlin does not meet the demands for heavy armaments from the Ukrainians, while Kyiv is worried about Russian preparations for a major offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

There are also voices within the coalition urging the Chancellor to do more to reduce Germany’s energy dependence on Russia.

“He must finally show some leadership,” Anton Hofreiter, an elected Greens member who chairs the Bundestag’s European Union Affairs Committee, told Reuters.

“I have the impression that Mr Scholz does not realize the extent of the serious damage to Germany’s reputation that he is causing in Central Europe, Eastern Europe and generally throughout Europe,” he said. he adds.

WARM SUPPORT

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany last week accused German authorities of lukewarm support for authorities in Kyiv and said Ukraine had become the victim of ‘shameful’ reliance on Germany to Russian fossil fuels.

To the German public radio channel rbb24 Inforadio, which asked him on Wednesday if he managed to show leadership, Olaf Scholz replied: “obviously, (…) and not just a little”.

The Chancellor said in this interview that Germany was supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons, air defense missiles and other armaments, while specifying that the German authorities were making sure “to avoid that NATO , the NATO countries and (…) Germany do not become parties to this war”.

According to government sources, the chancellor sees his role as maintaining the three-party coalition and is not concerned about short-term swings in his popularity.

Olaf Scholz must find a balance between the demands for increased arms deliveries to Ukraine, mainly from the Greens, and the reluctance of some members of his party, a long-time supporter of a rapprochement with the West with Russia before the war in Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Greens, also pleaded this week for deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

“The time is no longer for excuses but for creativity and pragmatism,” she said.

APPARENT CRACKS

Anton Hofreiter went further by calling for an embargo against Russian coal and oil, “a minimum” according to him.

“I think that even a complete energy embargo is possible,” said the Green MP, who traveled to Ukraine this week with two other elected members of the Bundestag: Michael Roth, member of the SPD at the head of the committee of Foreign Affairs, and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP and chair of the Defense Committee.

Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, covers a large part of its energy needs through Russian imports (25% for oil, 40% for gas). On the scale of Twenty-Seven, Russia represents 40% of all gas imports.

The EU managed to overcome some divisions again last week and on Friday adopted a fifth set of sanctions against Russia, which includes an embargo on imports of coal, wood and chemicals.

But for now, gas and oil – which provide Russia with a windfall helping to finance the war in Ukraine – have been spared European sanctions, particularly under the influence of Germany.

For Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, Germany will end up giving in on the oil sanctions, for fear of seeing Western unity fracture.

“The cracks are really starting to show within the coalition but in summary the fact is that Germany’s policy on Russia and Ukraine is completely untenable,” he said in an email to Reuters. .

“On oil sanctions, on EU budget support, Germany will be forced to change its position.”

(With contributions from Reuters TV and Andreas Rinke; French version Myriam Rivet, editing by Bertrand Boucey)



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