Italians will elect a new parliament on Sunday. Over 50 million eligible voters are called to the polls. You can cast your vote from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. Meaningful results are expected from Monday morning.
Meloni at an election rally in Milan. The motto of her party is: “Ready to get Italy back on its feet”.
What are the forecasts?
All polls predict a victory for the right-wing camp. The clear favorite is Giorgia Meloni, the head of the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia. Together with Matteo Salvini’s right-wing populist League and Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative Forza Italia, it is likely to achieve a majority in parliament, according to forecasts.
The social democratic Partito Democratico (PD) is also expected to achieve a good result. On the other hand, the election is likely to end less well for the protest party Cinque Stelle (M5S). She is currently still the strongest force in Parliament, but has lost a great deal of credibility and support while she has governed in recent years.
How many seats are available?
With a constitutional reform at the end of 2020, the number of seats in both chambers was significantly reduced in order to make parliament leaner and, above all, more cost-effective. The number of deputies was reduced from 630 to 400, and that of senators from 315 to 200. As a result, an unusually large number of incumbent parliamentarians will lose their seats in this election. A total of over 5,500 candidates are applying for the 600 seats. Voters can choose between 35 lists.
How is elected?
Italy has repeatedly changed its electoral system in recent decades. Rosatellum has been in effect since 2017: 37.5 percent of the seats are allocated after majority voting in single constituencies. The remainder is distributed proportionally to the parties, subject to a 3 percent threshold.
Larger coalitions are strongly favored in this electoral system. The right-wing camp, which is running as a unit in the single constituencies with common candidates, should benefit from this in the current ballot. The centre-left camp, on the other hand, has split into several separate parties and electoral alliances.
Why is there an election now?
Parliamentary elections in September, so soon after the long political summer break, have not been held in Italy since the founding of the republic. Regular should not have been elected until next year. But in July, the broad-based coalition government of technocrat Mario Draghi was overthrown, and President Sergio Mattarella was forced to call snap elections.
After the last election in 2018, there were no clear majorities in parliament. Under Giuseppe Conte, two governments with very different signs were formed, first a right-wing populist coalition between the Cinque Stelle and the Lega, then a left-wing coalition between the Cinque Stelle and the Partito Democratico. Both experiments lasted just over a year. There was a risk of a serious political crisis amid the pandemic, which hit Italy particularly hard. That is why President Sergio Mattarella commissioned the technocrat Mario Draghi to form a government in February 2021. His coalition government was supported by almost all parties in parliament, with only the Fratelli d’Italia remaining in opposition.
The former head of the European Central Bank has brought political stability and economic recovery to the country over the past 18 months. He was very popular until the very end, but coalition partners craving to make a name for themselves, above all the ailing Cinque-Stelle boss Conte and Lega man Salvini, brought down the grand coalition in July. Giorgia Meloni, who was the only one who did not support Draghi, is now benefiting most from the maneuver.
Fear of high abstentions
The many questionable power struggles and “unnatural” coalitions since 2018 have left many Italians disillusioned. According to surveys, a few days before the ballot was held, over a third of voters not yet whether and who they would vote for. Experts expect a high number of abstentions.
Voter turnout in Italy has traditionally been very high, but has steadily decreased in recent years. In 2006, the proportion of non-voters was 16.4 percent, 2008 19.5 percent, 2013 24.8 percent and 2018 27.1 percent.
To make matters worse, voting by post is not possible in Italy and the vote must be cast in the municipality in which you are registered. This makes it difficult for students or employees who work far away from their official place of residence to vote. According to estimates, around five million Italians currently live outside the municipality in which they are registered.