In a new study in the magazine “Nature”, researchers have calculated that there is a 48 to 58 percent probability that global warming of more than two degrees Celsius can be avoided. The prerequisite for this is that the international community reduces emissions of greenhouse gases to the exact extent that they promised at the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. It is the first time that the two-degree target of the Paris climate agreement seems achievable.
uncertainties in calculations
The range in the percentage shows the uncertainty in the calculation. For example, some of the promises made by states are vague – in many cases because they do not yet know how they want to achieve them. For example, what measures you can take to reduce CO2 emissions in traffic to zero. Many activities that contribute to global warming are also difficult to calculate, such as deforestation.
However, it is uncertain to what extent countries will keep their climate promises. Many relate to measures that are only to be taken in 10 to 20 years, but the necessary laws are missing. “Many countries are not yet on the way to climate protection that would make the 2-degree target possible – not even Switzerland,” says science editor Thomas Häusler.
A big problem: Many states have not even decided on all the binding measures needed to fulfill their promises to be achieved by 2030. “The Paris Agreement is rather stuttering, it’s not running smoothly – as it should,” says Thomas Häusler.