This Tuesday, May 23, 2023, the Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, Christophe Béchu, officially opened the public consultation for the Reference Warming Trajectory project for adaptation to global warming (TRACC).
Among the scenarios considered (including that of achieving compliance with the Paris Agreement), the most pessimistic – with warming of up to +4 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era – is also taken into account by the Ministry of Ecological Transition. .
” Let’s make it quick ! »
If Tech has its role to play in limiting the impact of human greenhouse gas emissions on global warming (with its share of controversy, however), the Ministry of Ecological Transition is trying, for its part, to anticipating as well as possible the various possible future scenarios between now and the end of the current century. If compliance with the Paris Agreement, with “only” 1.5 degrees more than the average temperatures of the pre-industrial era by 2100, remains possible and the priority of the Government, it takes lead in the ‘wing.
It is in this perspective that Christophe Béchu announced on Sunday April 21, 2023, in an interview granted to our colleagues from the Sunday newspaper, the holding, from this Tuesday, May 23, 2023, of a public consultation for the next TRACC project. It aims to “ to bring together and allow each actor – local authorities, companies, administrations, individuals – to take hold of it and participate in the debate “, in the words of the Minister of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion.
If the ministry is agitated at this point, it is because the year 2022 was quite simply the hottest year since the beginning of the weather records (1900) and that the average annual temperatures were higher by 3 degrees compared to those of the period 1901-1930 in France. The government is thus basing itself on four main scenarios, with the main effects visible in the infographic above.
“Our house is burning…” but there is still time not to look away
Unsurprisingly, the more the average temperature increases, the more the extreme phenomena are amplified. If it is not a question of giving in to alarmism, the Ministry of Ecological Transition is making sure to find solutions to the worst scenario envisaged in the 6e report of the IPCC, namely an increase in the average temperature, in 2100, of 4 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. The current dynamic around greenhouse gas emissions, increasing internationally, but decreasing in France (-10% since 2017), calls for caution.
The infographic above provides an overview of the low, medium and high ranges respecting the Paris Agreement (the 3 top cards) or the most pessimistic scenario (the 3 bottom cards). With +4 degrees of increase, the French glaciers would disappear in their entirety; the reliefs being the hardest hit. On average, there are more than 50 tropical nights per year in the South-West, South-East and the Rhône Valley, while the northern part of France is the most affected by phenomena of strong accumulations of precipitation in a period of time. restricted (thunderstorm). Beyond France, the differences would also be marked, with a maximum for Guyana.
More maps on the subject, such as details of how this consultation was set up, are available in TRACC, linked in the sources for this article below.
Sources: JDD , West France , Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion
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