good and bad news for your budget

The rise in prices was further accentuated in January. But not as much as expected. Explanations.

The rise in prices continues a little more. It increased in January, with the inflation rate reaching 6% over one year, after 5.9% in December, according to an estimate published on Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).

Why? According to INSEE, this is an acceleration in the prices of food and especially energy, which are rising by 13.2% and 16.3% over a year. Indeed, the end of the discount on petrol of 10 centimes per liter since December 31, since replaced by a fuel bonus intended for 10 million low-income households; and the 15% jump in regulated gas prices since January 1, logically pushing up consumer prices.

Decelerating inflation

But this new price increase in January is not a surprise. INSEE had already anticipated it at the end of 2022. And nice surprise, the waltz of labels is less strong than anticipated. In its note on the economic situation unveiled on 15 December, INSEE forecast a rise in prices of 7% over a year at the beginning of the year. We will have to wait until mid-February to have the final figure, but a priori, it is therefore one point lower than the predictions.

Bad news, it is to be expected that the rise in prices will continue in February to approach 7%. Indeed, after the rise in gas prices, EDF’s regulated tariff will also jump by 15% from 1 February. According to INSEE, this development is likely to increase inflation by 0.4 points next month. Despite everything, there is a good chance that it will not reach 7%.

Peak inflation in February

In addition, the month of February should be that of the peak of inflation. According to INSEE, it should gradually decelerate throughout the semesters to reach +5.5% in June.

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