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Russia no longer grants safe passage to Ukrainian grain ships. The most important questions and answers.
What happened? Russia has halted the much-vaunted international deal on exports of Ukrainian grain. On Sunday, for the first time since transports resumed in August, not a single ship left.
Legend:
The Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni was one of the last ships to transit the Black Sea carrying Ukrainian grain on Saturday.
Reuters/Yoruk Isik
Why is the Grains Agreement so important? Ukraine is among the top grain exporters, including wheat and corn. The impact of a blockade on the food markets is great. According to the UN, the agreement had “a positive impact on access to food for millions of people worldwide”. When it was closed in the summer, mediated by the UN and Turkey, prices also fell. As of October 24, 383 ships carrying a total of more than 8.6 million tons of grain and other foodstuffs had put to sea. This is also important for the financial budget of Ukraine, which has been financially weakened by the war.
Why has Russia pulled out now? Officially, Moscow accuses Ukraine of “terrorist attacks” in the Black Sea. This makes it impossible to ensure the safe passage of ships. As a specific reason, Russia cited a series of drone strikes on the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol on Saturday. The town is located on the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed in 2014. A minesweeper and military infrastructure were also damaged.
Legend:
The minesweeper Ivan Golubets is said to have been damaged by Ukrainian drones. Recording from 2016.
Reuters/Murad Sezer
Ukraine sees this only as a pretext for Russia’s older plans to scrap the agreement that was concluded until mid-November. Russia also wants to sell millions of tons of grain and fertilizers on the world market – which is hardly possible because of the sanctions from the West.
What does this mean for grain exports and world nutrition? Experts fear that the situation on the world markets will deteriorate again and that food prices will continue to rise. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba accuses Moscow of “playing with hunger”. The rest of the world should make Russia fulfill its commitments.
President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of doing everything possible to ensure that millions of people in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia would be hit by an artificially created hunger crisis. As early as September, Moscow began to block the grain ships. “This is an absolutely conscious blockade by Russia.”
What is Putin aiming for with the new blockade? The Russian President probably wants to increase the pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to enter into negotiations. Most recently, Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov had repeatedly stated that they were ready for talks. Zelensky, on the other hand, ruled out negotiations with Putin by decree. He is banking on deciding the war with weapons from the West on the battlefield – and not at the negotiating table. Russia also wants to prevent Ukraine from using grain proceeds to buy new weapons.
How can the agreement still be saved? From Moscow’s point of view, the UN is particularly important to ensure that the export of Russian grain and fertilizers can continue unhindered. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the agreement as a glimmer of hope. The UN has not given up hope yet. According to the original plan, the agreement would have expired on November 19. Without an objection, however, it would have been automatically extended.