In his new essay, demographer Hervé Le Bras dismantles the myth of the great replacement.
“There is no great replacement”, demonstrates the demographer Hervé Le Bras. This “curious fantasy” would be based, according to this emeritus researcher at INED, on chimerical projections and a manipulation of figures born in the aftermath of the war of 1870 and continued since then. “An effective, false, colorful fable, working on fear. »
According to him, immigration is actually experiencing astonishing stability: 6.5% of foreigners in France in 1936, 7.5% in 2020. Our proportion of foreigners remains below the European average, i.e. 7, 6%, behind Germany and its 12.5%. If the increase remains at this value, France will have, in 2050, 7.1 million immigrants for a population of 74 million inhabitants. “The demographic conditions for a future replacement of the French population are absolutely not met”, calculates the expert, but “destroy such a fantastical building will be difficult”.
“There is no great replacement”, by Hervé Le Bras, ed. Grasset.
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