Groundbreaking local elections
Is the AfD’s blue wave sweeping over Thuringia?
26.05.2024, 07:33
Before the state and European elections, Thuringia will vote on its mayors, district administrators and local parliaments. Sunday’s election will be a turning point: Höcke’s AfD could gain significant influence, while the CDU could lose its dominance. That would be much to the chagrin of CDU politician Mario Voigt.
Local elections in a federal state rarely concern the whole of the country, but in the case of Thuringia, this is different this time. This local super election Sunday is a game-changer for the future of individual cities and municipalities: will the AfD’s losses in polls, which were so strong in the winter, also be reflected in the results in Thuringia? Can the CDU maintain its position as Thuringia’s local power par excellence and thereby send a signal of departure for the state elections on September 1st? That is when top candidate Mario Voigt wants to replace the incumbent Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow from the Left Party. Or will the complicated political structure that has brought the state to the brink of being unable to govern remain?
1.7 million people are called upon to cast their votes. Mayors will be elected in the five independent cities of Erfurt, Jena, Gera, Suhl and Weimar, as well as in the city of Eisenach. Mayors will be voted on in 93 cities and municipalities, 70 of whom are full-time. Members of the district councils will also be elected, as will city, district and municipal councils in most cities, districts and municipalities.
On Sunday, 13 of 17 districts will also vote on district administrators. In June last year, AfD politician Robert Sesselmann won the party’s first district administrator post nationwide in the Sonneberg district. More could now follow. And this in the very state where right-wing extremist Björn Höcke is steering the AfD’s fortunes.
Who will be the “winning party” in the state election campaign?
Erfurt political scientist André Brodocz sees the local elections as a mood test. “The outcome can have a mobilizing or demobilizing effect on individual parties. This should not be underestimated with a view to the state elections about three months later.” And: “Winning parties are more attractive to many voters than losing parties.” In addition, if the AfD makes significant gains in Thuringia compared to the 2018 and 2019 local elections, it could say that people trust it – “right down to the last corner of Thuringia.”
However, no one dares to make a prediction – the regional conditions and issues as well as the personalities of the candidates are too different, with the SPD, the Left, the FDP and independents also having a chance of becoming mayors and district administrators. After all, the AfD won its first district administrator’s office in Germany in Sonneberg, Thuringia, in 2023 – but this was followed by defeats in the Nordhausen and Saale-Orla districts, where an independent and a CDU man won with the support of the other democratic parties.
Brodocz does not believe that the conviction of AfD right-winger Höcke for using a Nazi slogan could influence voting decisions for or against the AfD. The AfD has apparently succeeded in building party loyalty among some of its voters in recent years. “Some AfD voters are apparently immunized against such incidents.” In polls for the state elections, the AfD has only lost slightly in recent months and is currently at 30 percent, the CDU at 20 and the Left at 16 percent.
CDU has a lot to lose
Brodocz believes that the local elections are already a big deal for the Thuringian CDU. In 2018, in the election of district administrators and mayors of the independent cities, it was the strongest party, as it was six years earlier, with around half of all district administrators and a share of the vote of 37.9 percent. Some of its long-standing office holders, such as in Thuringia’s Eichsfeld – a predominantly Catholic region – are no longer running for reasons of age. “The CDU needs a good local result with a view to the state elections,” emphasises the political scientist.
CDU man Christian Herrgott showed in the Saale-Orla district at the beginning of the year “that we can beat the so-called alternative,” CDU leader Mario Voigt continues to encourage members and supporters of the Christian Democrats. Voigt is counting on the strong sense of home that the people of Thuringia have. “We are the only party that has put up candidates across the board in the local elections,” explains Voigt.
AfD not strong everywhere
The AfD does not even have its own candidates everywhere: in three districts there are no AfD people on the ballot paper for the district council election, and in Weimar the party does not have a candidate for mayor. In the district council elections the CDU has twice as many candidates, and the Left, the SPD and the Greens also have more candidates than the AfD. The compilation of an AfD candidate list in the Saalfeld-Rudolstadt district ended in a split: after an internal party dispute there are now two lists competing with each other. The local CDU and the AfD itself have already raised the possibility of challenging the election.
The incident caused a stir nationwide, with local AfD politicians demanding Höcke’s resignation. The candidacy of a right-wing extremist for the district office in Hildburghausen in southern Thuringia is causing a stir. The local election committee had approved the candidate, although he is considered a central figure in the right-wing extremist scene in Thuringia. It is expected that a whole series of personal elections will not be decided on Sunday. Then there will be run-off elections – together with the European elections on June 9.