Paris (awp/afp) – The reconfinements in China are weighing on the growth of world demand for oil, underlined on Wednesday the International Energy Agency (IEA), which revised very slightly downwards its forecasts for 2022 but anticipates a rebound for 2023.
This year, global oil demand is expected to grow by 2 million barrels per day (mb/d), instead of the 2.1 million previously forecast by the IEA, to reach 99.7 mb/d.
But in 2023 it would exceed its pre-Covid levels, at 101.8 mb/d, if China reopens as planned.
Globally, even if slowed down, the growth of oil remains sustained, in particular because, for example in the Middle East or the United States, it benefits from recourse to the detriment of gas, which has become very expensive.
According to this monthly report, world oil supply increased by 790,000 barrels per day in August compared to July, to reach 101.3 mb/d, with a strong recovery in Libya and to a lesser extent in Arabia. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, offset however by a decline in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Russia.
Until December, production should see its growth slow down further, with the IEA now posting a forecast of 100.1 mb/d in 2022 (and 101.8 mb/d in 2023).
As for Russia, its oil exports reached 7.6 mb/d in August (i.e. 390,000 barrels per day less than before the war in Ukraine), for export revenues estimated at 17.7 billion dollars (1.2 billion less).
The EU and Britain have cut their crude purchases from Russia by 880,000 barrels/day since the start of the year, to some 1.7 mb/d. On the other hand, their American imports increased by 400,000 barrels/d, to some 1.6 mb/d, as did their imports from Iraq, Norway and even Saudi Arabia.
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