Ironically, the two most dangerous strikers in Europe are in danger of missing the European Championship in Germany. While Erling Haaland fails due to Spain and Scotland, the Poles around Robert Lewandowski are dismantling themselves.
No matter which coach is on the bench, Germany, as hosts, has at least already secured qualification for the 2024 European Championship. The DFB team is still alone among the nations that have definitely qualified for the home tournament. And yet it is already clear in most qualifying groups who will be there in Germany and who will not. It will be particularly difficult for the two best scorers on the continent. An overview.
Group A: Scotland almost through, Haaland on the brink of elimination
The usually travel-loving and atmospheric Scottish fans are looking forward to their holiday in Germany. After five wins from five qualifying games, the “Bravehearts” will be fine. The only remaining question is whether Scotland can even hold on to first place ahead of Spain. Apart from the defeat in Scotland, they haven’t let anything go wrong and have two home games against Scotland and Norway in October. The selection of wonder striker Erling Haaland will probably have to wait for the first European Championship since 2000. The last resort is the playoffs. Georgia is also counting on this. Cyprus is out.
Group B: Giants France and Netherlands march
The fact that the French team lost to Rudi’s German team will not cause uncertainty in the neighboring country. France ultimately won all of the more important qualifying games. Five games, five wins, five clean sheets. That is the record of the “Equipe Tricolore”, which the Netherlands cannot keep up with. For the “Elftal” it’s about second place in the long-distance duel with Greece. Both nations have nine points, but the Netherlands have one game less. Ireland and Gibraltar have nothing to do with European Championship qualification.
Group C: England without problems, Italy is shaking
England only lost points against Ukraine (1:1) and is otherwise comfortably leading the group. Italy is now second in the table after the important 2-1 win against Ukraine. Especially since the Ukrainians, who are tied on points, have already played one more game and the North Macedonians, who are also tied on points, have by far the most difficult remaining program. As expected, Malta is just playing along.
Group D: Türkiye and Kuntz have two options
The Turkish national team has not shone so far, but still has a good chance of qualifying for the European Championships for the second time in a row. Croatia leads the table with ten points from four games. Turkey is level on points, but has already played five games. The remaining program with games in Croatia and Wales is tricky, especially since the Welsh are only three points away. This also applies to surprisingly strong Armenia. Latvia is still without a point. If Turkey slips, the team around German coach Stefan Kuntz at least has the detour of the playoffs up its sleeve.
Group E: Albania on the verge of a sensation, Poland threatened with elimination
When looking at the standings in Group E, Albania is surprising as the league leaders. Ten points from five games mean that the red-blacks’ second European Championship participation after 2016 is within reach. Two wins from the last three games are enough. The Czech Republic also has good cards as they are still undefeated in second place (eight points from four games). In this case, Poland would only go to the playoffs. The team around superstar Robert Lewandowski has lost all three away games (1:3 in the Czech Republic, 2:3 in Moldova, 0:2 in Albania) and is in the process of dismantling itself.
According to the Polish newspaper “Meczyki”, the captain and top scorer invited his teammates to dinner at the 2022 World Cup and demanded the money back from the association with which he is in a clinch. Lewandowski’s agent asserts that the striker paid for the meal privately. The rumor may have been spread by the Polish association of all people, agent and Lewandowski friend Tomasz Zawislak told “Meczyki”: “I heard about the rumor that the Polish football association is spreading such nonsense in order to meet Robert, and that on Day before the most important game of the qualifying round. Such a coincidence too.”
Zawislak indirectly insinuates that Robert Lewandowski is being pushed out of the national team and that such rumors are intended to distract attention from the team’s poor performance. However, the Polish association has denied the rumors. However, the association took action elsewhere: on Wednesday, national coach Fernando Santos, who was only hired in January, was fired after just six games.
In addition, Lewandowski’s ex-advisor Cezary Kucharski is also heavily involved in the farce surrounding the ex-Bayern striker. In several statements on X, formerly Twitter, he repeatedly attacks Lewandowski’s current advisor and blames him for his protégé’s poor performance.
As outsiders in this group, the Republic of Moldova is also involved in the qualifying race. The Faroe Islands national team has no chance.
Group F: No tension, no Swedes in Germany
Belgium and Austria marched through the group without any problems. The Alpine republic is almost through after the confident 3-1 victory in Sweden. Sweden de facto no longer has a chance and, unlike many other nations, cannot hope for a playoff detour because the blue and yellow did too poorly in the Nations League. Azerbaijan and Estonia are also running poorly in this group, but Estonia in particular has the best playoff chances thanks to the complicated mode.
Group G: Hungary dominates, Serbia in a duel with Montenegro
Hungary will qualify for the European Championships for the third time in a row, unless a miracle happens. The Hungarians have improved greatly in recent years and they are showing this in the qualification. Even Serbia can’t keep up at the moment, but should at least be able to keep second place ahead of neighboring Montenegro. Bulgaria and Lithuania are still without a win and have no chance of making it to the playoffs.
Group H: Four nations in a close race
After a stuttering start, including a sensational defeat in Kazakhstan, favorite Denmark is now on track. With 13 points from six games, the 2021 European Championship semi-finalists are level with leaders Slovenia. However, Finland and surprise team Kazakhstan each only have one point less and the Finns in particular should still have good chances of qualifying thanks to a simple remaining program. Both the Finns and the Kazakhs are guaranteed a playoff detour if they miss qualifying. Northern Ireland and San Marino are out.
Group I: Switzerland at the top, Israel with a chance of a European Championship debut
Despite two late point losses (2-2 against Romania and in Kosovo), Switzerland is fully on course for the European Championships. However, there are still trips to Romania and Israel coming up in October and November. These are the two pursuers of the Swiss, but realistically they will fight for second place between themselves. For Israel, the 2024 European Championship would be the first participation in the continental tournament and the second major tournament ever (after the 1970 World Cup). Belarus, Kosovo and football dwarf Andorra have nothing to do with next summer’s major event.
Group J: Portugal on a scoring spree, chance for Luxembourg despite 0:9
Along with Scotland and France, Portugal is the only team without losing a point. After six games there are not only 18 points, but also 24 goals. Ex-Belgium coach Roberto Martinez hasn’t conceded a goal yet. Behind Portugal, Slovakia has a good chance of qualifying for the European Championships for the third time in a row. The team around Peter Pekarik (Hertha), Matus Bero (Bochum) and Laszlo Benes (HSV), who are well-known in Germany, is three points ahead of Luxembourg. Germany’s smallest neighboring country has gone from a lightweight to a thoroughly respectable footballing nation, even if the 0-9 defeat in Portugal suggests otherwise. If they don’t manage to overtake Slovakia, Luxembourg will at least have a good chance of being in the playoffs. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland have to put everything into the playoffs, Liechtenstein has no options.
How do the playoffs work?
Host Germany as well as the ten group winners and ten group runners-up qualify directly for the European Championships. The three remaining places will be played via playoffs in March 2024. Twelve nations still have the chance to qualify for the tournament in Germany via this detour. What is relevant for this is not the performance in the European Championship qualification, but rather the placement in the Nations League 2022/2023. In short, and in order not to make things even more complicated, the best teams in the Nations League groups are allowed into the playoffs if they have not qualified directly for the European Championship.
Then three playoff tournaments will be formed, each with four teams. Two semi-finals and one final are played per playoff tournament; there are no return games. As of now, the playoffs would look like this.
- Playoff tournament A: Poland – Estonia (HF1) Wales – Finland/Ukraine/Iceland (HF2)
- Playoff tournament B: Israel – Finland/Ukraine/Iceland (HF1), Bosnia-Herzegovina – Finland/Ukraine/Iceland (HF2)
- Playoff tournament C: Georgia – Luxembourg (HF1), Greece – Kazakhstan (HF2)
When will the final round be drawn?
One month after the end of the qualification, on December 2nd, 2023, the six preliminary round groups will be drawn in the Elbphilharmonie in Hamburg. Germany is already placed in Group A and will play its preliminary round games in Munich, Stuttgart and Frankfurt. The remaining draw pots are determined based on the performances in the European Championship qualification. The three playoff winners are not yet known at the time of the draw.
As of now, the lottery pots for the final round draw would look like this:
- Pot 1: Germany (Group A), Portugal, Scotland, France, England, Belgium
- Pot 2: Croatia, Hungary, Albania, Switzerland, Slovenia, Austria
- Pot 3: Serbia, Denmark, Turkey, Spain, Netherlands, Romania
- Pot 4: Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia + 3 playoff winners