As the US approaches its election, the race is tight between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with polls showing close competition. Harris runs with Tim Walz, while Trump has J.D. Vance as his running mate. With approximately 155 million voters expected, many key issues, including congressional races and state propositions, will also be at stake. The election process, historical context of voting, and implications of swing states are elaborated, along with concerns about potential post-election challenges.
Is Kamala Harris poised to become the first female president in U.S. history, or will Donald Trump make a comeback? Current polling indicates that the U.S. election outcome is tighter than it has been in a while.
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The 60-year-old Democrat is running alongside Tim Walz, Minnesota’s governor, as her vice-presidential candidate. Meanwhile, the 78-year-old Republican has chosen J.D. Vance, a young senator from Ohio, as his running mate.
Four years ago, around 155 million citizens cast their ballots, with 81 million voting for Joe Biden—more than any previous candidate. However, just a mere 43,000 votes in three states were pivotal, highlighting the complexities of the voting system. Here’s what you need to know.
Who Will Emerge Victorious?
On November 5, voters across the United States will choose who will govern the world’s most powerful democracy for the next four years starting in January. Beyond the presidential election, many other decisions will also take place, particularly concerning the U.S. Congress, which includes the Senate and the House of Representatives—the two chambers responsible for creating laws in the U.S. One-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, with a six-year term for those elected. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, has all 435 members facing re-election every two years. Additional votes will be about state governors and local congresses, city councils, school boards, and referendums covering issues like abortion, Maine’s potential new state flag, and a fur ban in Denver.
Why Do Americans Vote on Tuesdays in November?
There’s a historical backdrop to this tradition: the harvest is generally completed by then, and Sundays are reserved for worship, allowing voters to reach polling places on Monday. In 1845, Congress designated the ‘Tuesday after the first Monday in November’ for elections.
Who Is Eligible to Vote in the U.S.?
Similar to Germany, voting eligibility in the U.S. is granted to all citizens aged 18 and older. During the 2020 election, that comprised approximately 232 million individuals. However, there is no universal registration requirement, so interested voters must register themselves. During this registration, they may express a preference for a political party, whether it be ‘Democrat’, ‘Republican’, or ‘Independent’. This preference doesn’t dictate their choice on election day, but it determines their eligibility for party primaries.
Over five million Americans are currently barred from voting due to incarceration. In most states, former prisoners cannot regain their voting rights even after serving their sentences, which disproportionately impacts Black citizens, who historically lean towards Democratic candidates. Consequently, Republicans often resist changes to reinstate voting rights for these individuals.
Because of these constraints, estimating the total eligible voter population in the U.S. is challenging. According to U.S. Statistics, around 155 million Americans voted in the 2020 election, corresponding to a voter turnout of roughly 66.8 percent— a record high.
How Is the President Actually Elected? What Are Electors?
Voters do not directly elect the president; instead, they select electors who will represent their state in December for the official vote. Typically, if a candidate leads in a state by even one electoral vote, they claim all electoral votes from that state—unless in Nebraska and Maine, where the delegates may split.
What Are Swing States?
Geographical and demographic factors create pronounced differences in voting behavior across the U.S. Urban residents, particularly on the East and West Coasts, tend to favor Democrats, while rural voters, especially in the Southeast, lean Republican. Historically, results have indicated winners in over 40 states, while campaigns primarily concentrate on seven crucial swing states. These include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, where each vote significantly impacts the outcome. Currently, polls show both candidates nearly tied in these battleground states, often with margins under two percentage points.
When Will Initial Projections Be Available?
Thanks to the numerous time zones, U.S. polling stations do not close simultaneously. Voting ends first in the eastern states, with Hawaii closing last. Unlike in some other countries, no official projections are released as votes are counted. However, major TV networks often declare winners early based on historical trends and