Has BTC Bottomed At $30,000?

Bitcoin (BTC): Technical Countermovement or Sustainable Price Reversal?

BTC rate: $31,012 (previous day: $30,644)

Short-term resistances/goals: $32,627/32,971, $33,714, $34,748, $35,464, $36,381, $37,452, $38,250, $39,003/39,322, $39,854, $40,019, $40,851, $41,183,

Short-term supports: $30,612, $29,764, $28,810, $26,170

Reasons for the current course caprioles at Bitcoin:

• The Bitcoin price came under significant pressure again in the course of a significant sell-off in the US technology index Nasdaq. The ongoing profit-taking on the global financial markets also caused the BTC course to correct significantly. Some of the reasons for the current price weakness can also be found here.
• Another factor is the continued strength of the US dollar. This is likely to expand further for the time being. As a result, the dollar index DXY also marked a new 2-year high this week.
• The fact that the stablecoins USDT and USDC also reached a new all-time high in their market dominance underscores the wait-and-see attitude of many investors.
• At the peak, Bitcoin temporarily fell back below the psychological mark of USD 30,000 before a recovery movement began in the early hours of the morning.
• The key crypto currency has lost more than 14 percent in value in the meantime and slipped to a new low for the year at USD 29,764.
• Short bets with an equivalent value of around 40 billion US dollars were active at the peak yesterday Monday.
• On the long side, around $700 million in leveraged bets on rising bitcoin prices have been liquidated over the past 24 hours, also suggesting that the bottom may be in place in the near term.

What speaks for a counter-movement to the north

• A technical recovery on the global financial markets seems to be starting today, Tuesday.
• The Bitcoin chart, as well as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 charts, are in oversold status on a daily basis, further increasing the likelihood of a price rally on “Turnaround Tuesday”.
• Statistics also indicate that many small investors liquidated their Bitcoin positions yesterday, which is often a good indication that the sell-off should have come to an end for the time being.
• In addition, since the Fear and Greed Index is now back in the region of its July 2021 lows with a value of 10, it can be seen as another factor for a bottoming tendency.

Bullish Scenario (BTC):

• After a massive sell-off at the start of the week, the Bitcoin price can recover back above USD 31,000 for the time being on Tuesday.
• Although Bitcoin has been able to join the technical countermovement on the classic financial market in the last few hours of trading, the bull power has not yet been enough to recapture the cross-resistance from EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger band at USD 32,653.
• The buyer side must now do everything possible to heave the BTC price back above the EMA50 at the end of the hour and subsequently also above the super trend at USD 32,941.
• If this price level can be regained in the long term, the two horizontal resistance marks at USD 33,714 and USD 34,748 will come into focus as target marks.
• If these price levels are recaptured in the coming days, a subsequent increase up to the cross resist of EMA200 (blue) and horizontal resistance at USD 35,464 is conceivable. A price bounce is to be expected here on the first attempt.

The chart picture brightens again slightly

• If this resistance is also broken through sustainably, a march towards the upper edge of the green resistance zone at USD 36,381 should be planned. This also increases the probability of a retest of the tear-off edge in the area of ​​USD 37,452. Investors are likely to want to take profits here again.
• The next relevant price target at USD 39,322 is only activated when this resist area is also dynamically recaptured by the hourly closing price.
• At the latest in the range between USD 39,003 and USD 40,019 it will be difficult for the bulls to initiate a liberation. In addition to old history highs and horizontal resistance lines, the red overriding downtrend line can also be found here. From the current perspective, a dynamic breakout is not to be planned. A spike up to the maximum bullish target price of USD 40,851 would be conceivable at most. Whether the buyer side can generate enough purchasing power to break through this area in the long term seems unlikely for the time being.

Bearish Scenario (BTC):

• Despite the current technical countermovement, the bears are still firmly in control for the time being. As described in the last Bitcoin analysis from April 27th, the drop below the psychological USD 40,000 mark has clouded the chart significantly for a short time.
• As long as the seller can cap the BTC price below USD 37,452, a new wave of sell-offs can be planned at any time.
• If Bitcoin falls back below USD 30,612 in the next few trading hours and the overnight low at USD 29,764 is retested, a preliminary decision can be expected. The lower Bollinger Band is currently also running here, which should also have a stabilizing effect.

Fallback towards last year’s low?

• If the bulls do not succeed in stabilizing the BTC price in this area and Bitcoin falls below this support level at the hourly closing price, a retest of the summer low from 2021 at USD 28,810 is increasingly likely.
• The bulls must then counteract this in order to avert an expansion of the correction.
• If all attempts to stabilize fail and Bitcoin gives up this central support in the long term, the downtrend is likely to accelerate again.
• Then the superordinate “Golden Pocket” in the area of ​​USD 26,170 as a target comes into the focus of investors.
• This course mark is to be regarded as the maximum correction target for the time being. To stave off a crash towards USD 20,000 and below, the bulls will need to take action here.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.94.