Has mortgage lending hit rock bottom?

Has the mortgage credit market eaten its black bread? According to a study published on Monday by the Banque de France, the production of real estate credit is picking up little by little. And this, despite credit rates returning to their 2016 levels.

While the usury rate, the maximum rate above which a bank cannot lend, has been revised every month since January to stand at 4% in March for loans of 20 years and over, the Banque de France note in a study published on Monday that the production of housing loans is stabilizing.

In concrete terms, the share of new housing loans stood at 15.8 billion euros in January, after 15 billion in December. And according to advanced data, the amount of new loans would even reach 17 billion euros in February. A level that is still far from the 18.6 billion euros recorded in September 2022.

One in two borrowers is a first-time buyer

Interest rates continue their gradual and orderly rise, with a nominal rate (excluding costs and insurance) 2.20% on average after 2.05% in December. Still according to figures from the Banque de France, these rates had not been reached since January 2016.

And the latter would even be much higher in February, according to the Observatoire Crédit Logement / CSA, which indicated a few days ago that on 25-year loans, mortgage rates exceed 3% for three quarters of borrowers, up to 3.50%. On 20-year loans, the 3% barrier is also crossed for half of the borrowers.

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Who are the borrowers at the start of 2023? Half of the housing loans for the acquisition of a main residence are signed by first-time borrowers in December 2022, a proportion slightly higher than the average observed since 2015, notes the Banque de France.

Real estate credit: are first-time buyers the big losers from the rise in rates?

And the latter continue to lengthen their loan duration as much as possible. The average duration of housing loans for the acquisition of a principal residence is 23 years and 9 months. This duration is 23 years and 1 month if we take all the borrowers.

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