The Covid-19 continues to skyrocket in France. The incidence rate is close to 1,000 per 100,000, under the double effect of a more contagious BA.2 variant and the relaxation of barrier gestures.
But this epidemic rebound does not, for the moment, cause concern for the health system. Indeed, the number of serious cases remains limited and the impact on the hospital is measured.
Very high contamination among 6-14 year olds and 30-49 year olds
During the week of March 14 to 20, the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 accelerated throughout the territory, confirms Public Health France in its weekly epidemiological update.
The incidence rate continued to increase (+ 36%) to reach 937/100,000 inhabitants at the national level. It was highest among 6-14 year olds and 30-49 year olds where it exceeded 1,000/100,000.
The biggest increases were among the oldest, with those aged 60-89 showing an increase greater than or equal to 45%, according to Public Health France. However, the incidence rate was highest among 6-14 year olds and 30-49 year olds (>1,000/100,000).
High incidence rate in Brittany and in the Grand Est
A sign that the epidemic is progressing: the R-staff has also increased (1.29) and was above 1 for the second week in a row. It was in Brittany and in the Grand Est that the incidence rate was the highest.
The BA.2 sub-variant continues its inexorable progression. This more contagious strain of Omicron now represents 73% of the Omicron sequences analyzed in the latest Public Health France Flash survey.
This acceleration of the circulation of the virus is not accompanied for the moment by an alert on hospitalizations. “At the national level, the number of new hospital admissions remained stable while new critical care admissions were still decreasing (-13%), as was the number of deaths in hospitals and in medical establishments and services. (ESMS)”, notes Public Health France in its weekly analysis.
Keep the mask?
In this context of rebound, vigilance is essential. “Compliance with barrier measures remains essential”, recalls Laetitia Huiart, scientific director of Public Health France. “Risk management is everyone’s responsibility. It is not because the mask is no longer mandatory that it is prohibited. »
Keep the mask in closed places – especially for the most fragile and in their presence – ventilate, wash your hands, so many essential gestures to limit contamination.
The continuation of vaccination as well. By reaching out to vulnerable audiences who have not yet received their booster dose rather than expanding the audience likely to receive a fourth dose, according to Daniel Levy-Bruhl, head of the respiratory infections unit at Public Health France.
How long will the rebound last?
How long will the rise in cases continue? “We expect to see contamination rise until the end of March, before a decline in April,” said Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health, at the end of last week.
A scenario that the epidemiologists of Public Health France do not confirm for the moment, underlining the difficulty in predicting the evolution of the behavior of the French people and the weather in the coming days and the coming weeks.
Two important parameters in the dynamics of the epidemic, in the same way as the high contagiousness of the virus. “We can hope that the rebound does not last but it is difficult to anticipate”, sums up Daniel Levy-Bruhl.