Heat wave: what is the real impact on the economy?

Intense heat wave, rain of expenses. This is the formula that we could use to sum up the impact of a heat wave like this on the economy in France. In any case, this is what Santé Publique France points out in a study on the economic consequences of heat waves in mainland France. Published July 27, 2021, and update on the website of the national public health agency on July 1, 2022, the study appears “ more relevant than ever according to Olivier Chanel, director of studies at the CNRS at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) and co-author of the report. And for good reason, between extreme heat and activity restrictions, “ everything seems predisposed to the country idling in the coming days points out the researcher.

This is a major pitfall in the fight against these extreme climatic phenomena: “ heat waves are only too little analyzed in terms of their economic aspects notes Olivier Chanel. However, these episodes of very hot weather have a significant cost according to Santé Publique France, which estimates that the waves of heat waves that occurred between 2015 and 2020 would have cost 22 to 37 billion euros due to expenditure on medical expenses, slowdown of economic activity or of “ loss of well-being “. A loss of well-being that the researchers attribute to the restrictions of activities which they believe would have real socio-economic repercussions “. Both physically (avoiding sports activities, cancellation of events) and psychologically (fatigue, cramps, reduced cognitive abilities), there are many factors in the loss of well-being.

An economic impact to put into perspective?

“ The deformation of the rails due to the heat wave can for example lead to the closure of many railway tracks, continues the researcher. And this inevitably leads to a disorganization of society and to extended time in economic value. analyzes the co-author of the study. According to the same report, heat waves have on average cost “ 814 euros per inhabitant exposed over the accounting period. A figure calculated on the basis of expenses related to the malfunctions caused by these climatic events.

Heat waves would also have a real impact on productivity at work. An average worker exposed to more than 33°C would lose about 50% of his working capacity according to the International Labor Organization (ILO). “ It is very likely that agricultural production will be strongly affected again this year “says Olivier Chanel. As a direct consequence of the current heat wave, since no stormy episode is forecast by Météo France by the end of at least July, the drought could therefore get even worse. Over the year 2020, the drought, for example, cost between 1 and 1.2 billion euros, according to the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR). But a Senate report puts into perspective the impact that a heat wave could have on economic activity. After the heat wave of 2003, the Senate noted that growth had only been cut by 0.1 to 0.2 point of GDP over the whole of the year, ie 2 to 4.5 billion euros.

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So are we heading towards a crisis as serious as that of 2003? “ Structural factors must be taken into account this time: the hospital is in crisis, and there is a lack of medical staff to deal with the heat wave and manage the current Covid peak “describes the researcher at the CNRS.

However, he qualifies it seems unlikely that this heat wave will do more damage than in 2003 “. As a reminder, this heat wave of exceptional magnitude had caused a wave of deaths, in particular among the most vulnerable people. Set up following this health disaster, the National Heatwave Plan (PNC) has made it possible to limit the health effects by raising citizens’ awareness of the impacts of heat. Deployed every summer, it has since contributed to reducing the number of deaths as much as possible. From 15,209 deaths as a result of the heat wave in 2003, their number fell considerably to fall to 1,462 in 2019 on a similar heat wave episode.

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