The result of the vote in Kansas is a heavy blow for American anti-abortionists. The election was an important mood test and has consequences beyond Kansas.
An anti-abortion campaigner is campaigning for a yes and thus an abolition of abortion rights in Kansas.
“What’s going on with Kansas?” is the title of a book and a film based on it, which explains the triumph of radical conservatives in the American hinterland. This is exactly the question that many are likely to ask now that the population in this rural and Republican-dominated state has clearly rejected lifting abortion rights. This is protected in the Kansas constitution, which the initiators wanted to change with their template. In the referendum on Tuesday, however, they received only 41 percent approval, 59 percent rejected the abolition of the provision.
The result is surprising, even a sensation in its clarity. Polls had led to the expectation that the outcome would be relatively tight, with the abortion opponents benefiting. Banning abortion has been a key concern for Republicans for decades, and they’ve been the driving force in Kansas for just as long. In 2020, 56 percent voted for Donald Trump in the state, and the population last voted for a democratic presidential candidate almost sixty years ago.
Kansas is a battlefield of anti-abortion militants
The abortion issue has long been controversial in Kansas. In the “Summer of Mercy” in 1991, militant opponents protested in front of various clinics and threatened staff and pregnant women. In 2009, nationally known doctor George Tiller was shot dead in Wichita. For decades, Republicans in the state legislature have tried to restrict abortion rights further and further. In 2019, however, the Kansas Supreme Court blocked a law banning abortions in the second trimester of pregnancy. It specifically stated that the state’s constitution protects the right to control one’s own body. A constitutional revision was the only way to ban the intervention.
The fact that this has now failed is surprising in many ways. The yes campaign tried to show that acceptance would not lead to a ban on abortion – although several of the initiators had explicitly called for it. Rather, it is about preventing extensive liberalization and abortions in the advanced stages of pregnancy. In addition, the Republicans did not vote on the bill at the same time as the congressional elections in November, as is usual, but on Tuesday’s primary election date. Then the participation is usually lower, which is useful for particularly committed advocates of a cause.
The vote was the first real test of sentiment since the Supreme Court’s landmark “Roe v. Wade” had repealed national abortion laws in late June 1973. Since then, the member states have been responsible for settling the issue. For pro-choice advocates, the outcome is a tremendous achievement, and it has ramifications well beyond Kansas.
Firstly, very specifically: access to abortion is already severely restricted in the Midwest. Since the Supreme Court “Roe v. Wade” has tipped, already have 14 member states the operation is completely or largely prohibited. These include Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas in close proximity to Kansas. Acceptance of the constitutional amendment would have unintentionally forced pregnant women to travel even further. As early as 2021, half of the abortions in Kansas were performed on women from other states, and that proportion is likely to increase with the end of Roe.
Joe Biden calls for a national law
Additionally, Kansas is sending an unmistakable signal that repealing abortion rights is indeed as unpopular as polls have been showing for years — even in conservative regions. This will fuel efforts for referendums in other states. As early as November, people in California and Vermont could enshrine abortion rights in state constitutions, while in Montana and Kentucky they have to decide whether to ban it.
President Joe Biden stated in a statement on the vote in Kansas, Congress should listen to the will of the people and pass a national law to legalize abortion. However, corresponding proposals by the Democrats failed in the Senate, where a qualified majority of 60 votes would be required.
A change in the position of the Republicans is excluded. What is certain, however, is that the Democrats feel a boost from Tuesday’s result and hope that the abortion issue will mobilize their voters for November’s congressional elections. All in all, little is likely to change in the outcome – the economic situation is usually more important than all other issues, and the mood in this regard is miserable. But it’s entirely possible that the abortion issue will help the Democrats to victories in some tight races in temperate states.