The closure of the New York market on Monday, due to Labor Day, had deprived the European markets of their main compass. They then focused on the energy crisis, which took on a new dimension with the shutdown sine die Russian gas deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. On Tuesday, the crisis remains in everyone’s mind, not only because it locks the euro under, or around, 0.99 dollars, but also because it weighs on orders to industry in Germany. In July, they contracted by 1.1% over one month, their sixth consecutive decline.
” This decline was due to a substantial fall in domestic orders, as demand in the euro zone also weakened. On the other hand, demand outside the euro zone was much strongeranalyzes Rory Fennessy, economist at Oxford Economics. The overall level of orders is holding up, with base orders still 3% above their pre-pandemic level, but the outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The latest PMI indices and forward-looking survey data suggest that the German economy began to contract in the third quarter, a trend that will continue through the winter as high energy prices and voluntary gas rationing depress industrial activity. »
D-2 before the ECB decision
Across the Atlantic, the markets reopened cautiously. In absolute terms, the rise in the ISM services index, beyond expectations, to 56.9 in August, is good news, but, in the current context of fears of major monetary tightening, this progression is poorly perceived by the market. Moreover, tensions were quickly observed on the 10-year US Treasury yield, since it jumped to 3.32%, while the 2-year yield rose above 3.5%, at most. -high since the end of 2007. For its part, the tool developed by the CME based on futures contracts on Fed-funds now gives a 72% probability of a 75 basis point hike in key rates at the September 21 meeting.
In the euro zone, the Central Bank, caught between a rock and a hard place, that is to say between inflation and anemic growth, could also decide on an increase of 75 basis points. ” It must act because it must be remembered that its original mandate is to maintain price stability. We are far from it “says Philippe de Gouville, CEO and co-founder of Ismo.
Pending the ECB’s verdict on Thursday, the Bedroom 40 played it safe again. It gleans 0.19%, to 6,104.61 points, in a still very low business volume of 2.35 billion euros, after having suffered seven declines since August 25.
Oil prices down
On the values front, the oil and oil-related companies suffered the blow against a backdrop of falling black gold prices. The barrel of Brent from the North Sea fell 2.5% to 92.7 dollars, the decision of OPEC + to cut its production by 100,000 barrels per day being offset by the risk of a drop in demand linked to the recontainments in China. TotalEnergies and Vallourec ended down 2.76% and 5.57%, while the oil services group CGG lost 6.1%.
Casino (+1.93%) is embarking on a new capital restructuring operation in South America. Its subsidiary in Brazil, GPA, plans to distribute about 83% of Grupo Exito, its retail asset in Colombia, to its shareholders. Subject to obtaining the necessary authorizations, the operation will take place in the first half of 2023.
The motorist Saffron (+0.38%) entered into exclusive negotiations with Thales to acquire its aeronautical electrical systems business, which employs 600 people and generated 124 million euros in revenue last year. The amount of the transaction, which is expected to be finalized in 2023, was not disclosed.