No party for cryptocurrencies?– During this festive period, the course of the Bitcoin (BTC) don’t overdo it. BTC falls in volatility and maintains a bearish momentum. Despite everything, for the moment, Bitcoin retains its low point at $15,500. For its part, the US market is proving fragile and is unable to start rising again. Can risky assets surprise at the end of the year, or is the downward momentum not over? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Towards a change in dynamics for Bitcoin on a daily basis?
On a daily basis, Bitcoin (BTC) is still in bearish momentum. The sellers have their hands on the price, but the situation could change quickly.
For a week, volatility drops drastically. The price fluctuates between $16,500 and $17,000. Traders seem to be busy with the holiday season, but Bitcoin rarely stays at this level of volatility for long. The two levels to watch on a daily basis are the following levels:
- $18,375 : this is the level that would allow the dynamic to change on a daily basis. A fence above of 18,375 dollars would give the information that the buyers are regaining control of the course. Attention ! A resistance significant is present at this level;
- $15,500 : it’s the last lowest bitcoin. If the price closes below this level, the downtrend will continue. For the moment, the sellers have their hands on the price and a new Bitcoin low cannot be ruled out.
We notice that a bearish trendline has been postponing the course since June. As long as the price does not change momentum on the other side of this trendline, it will remain brittle. Momentum is back on the upside, a close above 59 of RSI would be positive for the future.
Volatility marks an all-time low. Even in 2018, volatility had not gone that low.
It is historicalbut unfortunately not in a good way for cryptocurrencies. The period of bear market usually offers a drop in volatility, and we are currently watching it. Indeed, once the price has fallen and the players are disgusted by the market, traders lose interest and the price drops in volatility. Volatility evolves in the form of a cycle, and it should return in the coming months to the delight of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
Safe-haven assets stabilize
The dollar stagnates below the resistance at 105.5 points
After experiencing a local top close to 115 dotsthe dollar index does not show no bullish elements for the moment.
Now the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is at the level of the resistance at 105.5 points. These EMAs could act as dynamic resistance and reject the course in the event of a rebound. The scenario that exposes a return to the level of the 102.5 point support is still relevant. Momentum is still bearish. The lows and highs are descending at the RSI level.
Gold stalls at $1,825
Gold benefits from capital turnover. In fact, for several weeks now, the dollar has been falling and traders seem to be turning to gold.
Admittedly, gold seems to be benefiting from the rotation of capital at the end of the year, but the price has struggling to break above $1,825. The course evolves at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) with bullish momentum. The institutional bias is on the upside, it could serve as a dynamic support in the coming days.
If the price manages to break out of this first stop, the next theoretical level of resistance will be at the shorts reload zone (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) between $1,900 and $1,970. No matter what, the gold remains stuck up in a row between $1,690 and $1,970. It seems to be a long accumulation periodbut it will be necessary to break the resistance to regain attractiveness at the level of gold.
The US market shows fragility
S&P 500 soon back to $3,700?
The US market blocked again at the level of bearish trendline and first stop at $4,000. As long as the price moves below this resistance, there will be brittle.
The dual resistance rejects the course, it now evolves under the resistance at $3,900. Recently, the institutional bias even rejected the course, a return to the level of the support at $3,700 is to be considered. This is an important level that has often allowed the price to bounce back. It could again be defended by buyers.
Buyers can no longer reverse the dynamic. Indeed, each peak is lower than the previous one, and each trough is lower than the previous one. To imagine an end to the bearish period on the American market, it will be necessary to show resilience by initiating a change in dynamics. It’s still too much febrile for the moment.
Moreover, the momentum remains stuck under the resistance at 58 of RSI. This resistance has been present since early January 2022 and it is holding up for now.
Tesla’s share price plummets
Elon Musk is known to have a penchant for cryptocurrencies and especially Dogecoin. Also, the year 2022 will be marked by the takeover of Twitter by Elon Muskthat should step down as CEO. However, he remains the boss of the company. Tesla losing 70% since the beginning of the year.
Is it possible that the omnipresence on social networks of the famous boss of Tesla is tarnishing the image of the company? Looking at this graph, the operators do not seem enthusiastic about the situation.
Tesla’s course is in downtrendand it decreased by more than 20% In a week. Tesla stock is back at the level of one support important located at $119. Buyers might react. It will take time to regain bullish momentum on this asset, as the price is moving well below the bearish trendline initiated in November 2021.
Momentum is also bearish. It will be necessary to wait to mark troughs and ascending peaks to find colors on this asset. Quitting the job of CEO of Twitter will perhaps allow him to regain the confidence of investors?
Bitcoin is experiencing a historical period in terms of volatility. Indeed, it has never experienced such low volatility in its history. While waiting for volatility to rise again, Bitcoin is stuck between $18,375 and $15,500. Buyers have the opportunity to change momentum in the short term, but can they? For this, it will be necessary to exceed 18,375 dollars daily. The American market shows fragility. The S&P 500 may find buyers at support at $3,700. For its part, the Tesla action is going through a difficult period and loses 70% in the space of a year.
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