Hostage agreement with Hamas
The deal with the devil is controversial in Israel
From Tal Leder, Tel Aviv
November 24, 2023, 3:02 p.m
The first multi-day ceasefire in the Gaza war is underway, and several hostages are expected to be released today. Despite anticipation among relatives in Israel, there are warnings about the negative consequences of the trade.
After almost seven weeks of demonstrations in Tel Aviv’s Opera Square demanding the liberation of hostages in Gaza, Israel has negotiated a deal with the terrorist organization Hamas. A four-day ceasefire was agreed through Qatari mediation and came into force this morning. As of 4 p.m. local time, 13 women and children will initially be released, followed by another 37 by Monday. In return, 150 Palestinians will be released from Israeli prisons.
“I fear that this agreement will be a disaster,” says Dana Levi from Jerusalem. “Because it enables over 100 criminals to return to terrorist activities. Of course, we all pray for the hostages to be freed and Israel should do everything to achieve this, but never in exchange for terrorists.” Levi is one of the survivors of the Entebbe plane drama in the summer of 1976. At that time, an Air France plane was hijacked by Palestinian and German terrorists to Uganda and rescued by a special commando of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). She sees the deal as delicate: “Whenever Israel released such murderers, the attacks got worse,” she says.
Still, few Israelis reject the deal because, for most, the government’s failure to protect its citizens from the unprecedented Oct. 7 attack means it will now have to pay any price to bring those abducted home. Until the end of the 1970s, the Jewish state would never have agreed to such a deal. The “Entebbe Doctrine” he adopted at the time did not allow negotiations with terrorist organizations. Israeli hostages would be released either through operational measures, local negotiations or an exchange after the fighting ends.
Strategic damage
“Comprehensive agreements that include a mass release of prisoners are like surrendering to terror,” says Shai Shabtei, a former colonel in the IDF. “Hamas is aware that its existence is at stake. With the hostages as a bargaining chip, it has one goal: to use endless negotiations to undermine the reduction of its political and military power.” According to Shabtei, prisoner exchanges cause significant strategic damage to Israel. He sees the goals declared at the start of the war of disempowering Hamas and freeing the more than 200 hostages as difficult to reconcile as a result of the deal. In addition, Israel would thereby restore the international legitimacy of the terrorist organization.
“The dilemma is not whether the fighting should continue, but whether continuing at full force after the first agreement would not pose dangers for the remaining hostages,” says Shabtei. “Hamas will use the lull in fighting to offer another prisoner exchange at a painful price. This will also raise the bar for Jerusalem on how much they are willing to pay for further releases. The terrorists understand this sensitivity and will exploit it, to put Israel in a very difficult position.”
Experts say a ceasefire agreement could be extended beyond the proposed four days, potentially leading to an end to Israel’s operation in Gaza. At the same time, it is currently anything but clear whether the deal will be implemented in whole or in part. “The Israeli decision shows that the lives of the hostages are the top priority,” said security expert Eyal Pinko, a research fellow at the Begin Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University. “The goal of overthrowing Hamas has become secondary.” It can be assumed that the Palestinian terrorist organization will remain in power even after the war. The end of the fighting will therefore be “only temporary”.
Ceasefire makes end of war more likely
The final details of the ceasefire agreement negotiated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar – one of Hamas’ main sponsors – are still being clarified. It is expected that the hostage exchange will also be implemented gradually. The Israeli army is also expected to stop its military activities in the Gaza Strip, including drone surveillance for several hours a day. “Hamas will prolong this period as long as possible,” Pinko said. “After the civilians are released, negotiations will begin regarding the detained soldiers. During this time there may be occasional fighting. But the longer the ceasefire lasts, the more the war ends.”
The security expert believes that a prolonged pause in fighting could lead to half of the population currently in southern Gaza trying to return to the north. In such a case, the army would no longer be able to operate effectively. “The result of such a scenario is that the IDF will be forced to withdraw from the coastal strip.”
If the deal fails, Israel will expand its advance into the southern Gaza Strip, where the Hamas leadership is now based. Such a clash is expected to be difficult and bloody for both sides. The terrorists know that their existence is at stake and are therefore likely to use the hostages to gain political and military advantage. “Life is the greatest good in Judaism,” explains Dana Levi, ex-hostage in the 1976 Entebbe plane hijacking. “Saving one human soul is like saving the whole world, it says in the Talmud. But if the war stops now and Even if all the hostages are freed, Israel will not have achieved much.”
In fact, the ceasefires of the last Gaza wars did not last long. The Hamas leadership is still there and will soon pursue its goal of destroying Israel with financial and logistical help from Tehran. Therefore, regardless of how the war ends, Israel needs a longer-term strategy. “With Hamas terrorism, it will be impossible to continue living in a free and democratic country,” says Levi. “Therefore, these fanatics should be removed from power and brought to justice for their crimes. We owe it to the Israeli victims and the next generation.”