How enemies communicate
Iran and Israel are relying on an attack with an announcement
By Céline Joufffrau and Andrea Sellmann
April 18, 2024, 8:07 a.m
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In the Middle East, indirect communication counts for more than clear words. Iran and Israel also act according to a very special logic – and walk a fine line. Can the signs be interpreted correctly?
The situation is explosive: For the first time since the existence of the Islamic Republic, Iran has directly attacked Israel. Israel leaves no doubt that it wants to respond to this attack. Playing with fire? In any case, crisis diplomacy is in full swing.
In the “Wirtschaft Welt & Weit” podcast, host Andrea Sellmann looks at the Middle Eastern logic that permeates Iranian communication not only in everyday life, but also in war and crisis situations. Andreas Reinicke is director of the German Orient Institute in Berlin and has decades of diplomatic experience. In the new podcast episode he talks about the peculiarities of indirect communication, which we in the West don’t always immediately understand.
For Iran, according to Reinicke, the major attack on Israel was a “very serious warning” that should, however, have “no destructive character.” What kind of thinking is behind it? How narrow is the level on which the two hostile countries operate? If the situation were to worsen, it would also have consequences for world trade. Has Iran already indirectly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is so important for oil tankers?
“Opportunity for collective security in the Middle East”
With a view to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, Reinicke also dares to dream: never before have Arab states actively defended Israel. In a distant but ideal diplomatic world, this could create a “new opportunity for collective security in the Middle East.”
Andreas Reinicke is director of the German Orient Institute in Berlin. The retired ambassador started his diplomatic career at the embassy in Tel Aviv and worked at the consulate general in New York. He represented German interests as ambassador in Damascus, Syria, and Tunis. He was also the EU special representative for the Middle East peace process and head of the representative office at the Palestinian Authority.
What does Germany have to do to continue to play an important role in the economic world of tomorrow? Who do we depend on? Which countries benefit from the new world situation? Andrea Sellmann discusses this with relevant experts in the ntv podcast “Wirtschaft Welt & Weit”.
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