Since January 1, 2024, opening a home savings plan guarantees you a remuneration rate of 2.25% for the entire life of your PEL, potentially for 15 years. It was 2% in 2023 and another 1% in 2022. However, many observers (including MoneyVox) were betting on 2.50%. Rat. The fault is a complex, even opaque calculation formula… and which becomes even more secret in 2024!
At the beginning of December, the church seemed to have been said. Towards a 2.5% rate for the PEL in January?, in Invest-Les Echos. On January 1, 2024, its interest rate is expected to increase from 2% to 2.5%, in Capital. And, mea cupla, MoneyVox even headlined, on December 5: Why the housing savings plan rate will rise to 2.5% on January 1 (barring any surprises). A series of articles which was based on the one hand on the monthly publication of the Banque de France of a theoretical rate of the PEL resulting from the calculation formulathe disadvantage of this indicator being a significant time lag, and on the other hand on a press release from the Cercle de l’Épargne, on December 8, where the economist Philippe Crevel titrated towards a rate of 2.5%.
Rat… On December 14, RMC publishes an indiscretion from Bercy: it will be 2.25%. Then begins a sketch of doubting the strict application of the regulatory formula. RMC: By increasing the rate of return on the PEL to 2.25%, the Minister of the Economy and Finance chooses the lower range. Strict application of the mathematical formula rather predicted a return of 2.5%. Le Figaro: If the forecasts were based on a rate of 2.5%, the Minister of the Economy and Finance chose the lower range. Philippe Crevel, quoted by several media including MoneyVox, mentions a minimum increase.
2.25% is indeed the strict application of the calculation formula
So quick, in recent months, to respond to recurring attacks on the usury rate, the Bank of France this time did not react to these doubts. MoneyVox contacted Bercy and the Banque de France to obtain explanations on the setting of a rate of 2.25% contrary to the expected 2.5%. Without success.
And then, finally, 2.25% gross, rather than 2.5%, that doesn’t change much when the Livret A displays a rate of 3% net of any tax over the entire year 2024… But the The rate of a new PEL is blocked over a decade or more, unlike the star booklet. End of sequence?
This was without counting on the determination of Jean-Franois Filliatre, former editorial director of Better use of your money, long-time columnist on BFM Business, and now editorial director of MarchsGagnants.com and EtPlusEncore.com. At the beginning of January, he resumes the calculations of rates swap of November, those on which the PEL formula is based. His conclusion: despite the doubts, 2.25% is indeed the result of the strict application of the calculation formula.
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Jean-Franois Filliatre contacted the Banque de France – by integrating MoneyVox into the conversation – to confirm his calculation and, above all, to find out why the Banque de France allowed a questioning of compliance with the rules for setting the PEL rate to be closed. This tireless defender of savers obtained a very detailed and well-argued response from the Bank of France. In short? The institution confirms the intuition of Jean-Franois Filliatre, the result of the calculation gives 2.06% for the month of November, therefore 2.25% for the PEL on January 1st by rounding up to the next quarter point as required by the law. For the PEL, the rates published since 2016 have always been those resulting from the strict application of the formula. The latest one too, the 2.25% is indeed the strict application of the formula, insists the Bank of France.
The Banque de France will no longer publish theoretical rates
More surprising, faced with Jean-Franois Filliatre’s question on the lack of communication on the calculation of the PEL rate in December 2023… the Bank of France chooses not to communicate more, but less! The rate resulting from the calculation formula being published with a one-month delay, it effectively misled the specialist press (and MoneyVox first). Resolution 2024 of the Bank of France: We decided to no longer publish given its purely indicative nature while the disadvantages of the misuse made of this series grew. and the confusion it could therefore create.
This Friday, January 5, the Banque de France is publishing its monthly barometer of deposit remuneration rates, a publication which until now included this theoretical rate of the PEL. This Friday, this indicator disappeared. For the record, the indicator still exists (for the moment) on the open data site of the Banque de France. In November, it was 2.079%, which further confirms the absence of any scandal (2.25% was the right rate) but also confirms the extreme complexity of the PEL rate formula, since this result diverges slightly from the official formula result provided yesterday by the Bank of France.
Is the future of the ELP ever more threatened?
There will no longer be any confusion without this public indicator. With the risk of making the home savings plan even more opaque? The PEL is criticized by the Court of Auditors because of its previous high rates, recalled Philippe Crevel MoneyVox in mid-December. The banks which previously had made it a flagship product no longer offer it much. The government had indicated its intention to reform it but nothing was forthcoming. Without reform, could the ELP fall into oblivion?