Despite the outbreak of war in Ukraine and massive sanctions by the USA and the European Union against Russia, the crypto sector is relatively unimpressed. In fact, this problematic constellation of all things could now further advance the mass adaptation of Bitcoin (BTC) and Co. Global crypto donations of over USD 28 million to the Ukrainian state and local NGOs underline the use case of digital payment transactions. In times when it is difficult for the classic banking sector in Ukraine and Russia to raise and provide money, players are switching to cryptocurrencies for money transactions and the payment of goods for a wide variety of reasons.
Best price performance among the top 10 altcoins: Terra (Luna)
As in the previous week, Terra again secures the place of the week’s winner. In the course of a resurgent Bitcoin price in the last few hours of trading on Monday, Terra can also form a new historical high and break out of the strong resistance level at USD 78.36 in the direction of USD 87.98. Positive news about new bitcoin reserves to secure the company’s own stable coin UST in the amount of USD 1 billion are also having a positive effect on the price development.
Bullish Variant (Terra)
The LUNA course exploded in the last few trading days and shows an increase of almost 70 percentage points in a weekly comparison. The LUNA price has thus been able to pulverize all resistance in the last few days. The bulls must now try to stabilize the price of Terra above USD 78.34. If the LUNA price reaches the USD 87.98 mark in the coming trading days, a first directional decision can be planned. The Luna course clearly failed at this price level on January 15, 2022. A dynamic breakout back above this resistance puts the all-time high at USD 103.66 as a target. First investors will realize profits here.
New highs are targeted
If the overall market can continue to work its way north in the coming weeks and Terra overcomes its all-time high of USD 103.66, a subsequent increase towards USD 131.25 is to be planned. This course mark is derived from the 127 Fibonacci Extension. If there is no clear trend reversal to the south here either, Terra should march right through to the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 144.65.
In the long term, a subsequent increase up to the 161 Fibonacci extension at USD 177.20 would also be conceivable. From the current chart perspective, the maximum price target for Terra is USD 242. This area contains the 127 Fibonacci extension of the overall trend movement and the 200 Fibonacci extension of the current upward movement.
Bearish Variant (Terra)
If the LUNA price bounces south in the course of renewed overall market weakness in the area of USD 87.98 and falls back below the red support zone at USD 78.36, the price should correct to around USD 69.74. If this support level does not hold, the correction extends to the green support area between USD 62.52 and USD 59.75. The two moving average lines EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) are currently running in this area.
A rebound to the north is therefore very likely. If the price also falls below this zone in the future, the correction will extend into the blue zone. The EMA200 and the MA200 run here, paired with the super trend in the daily chart. A directional decision is very likely here. If the bears succeed in breaking through this zone over the long term, the chart picture for Terra will cloud over significantly. Then the LUNA course should break away back into the orange zone. The low of January 31, 2021 can be found between USD 47.53 and USD 43.54.
The chart picture is slightly clouded
The bulls will want to defend this price level. On the other hand, if Terra slips back below this support area, the correction will widen towards the first bearish price target at USD 37.87. Here Terra already turned north in November 2021. However, if Terra falls below this support mark at the end of the day, the red support area between USD 34.76 and USD 31.34 comes into view as a target zone. Increased resistance from the bulls is to be expected here.
In the past, this area was hotly contested several times. A dynamic undershoot should then lead Terra back to USD 24.97. On a daily basis, this mark was last defended several times in September 2021. For the time being, lower prices are not to be expected, the LUNA price has tended to be bullish in the last few weeks. Investors can use pullbacks towards $62.52 for pro-cyclical fresh entry.
Indicators (Terra)
Both the RSI indicator and the MACD indicator have active buy signals. In the weekly chart, the RSI has now also developed a new buy signal, which also has a price-supporting effect. From an indicator point of view, the chances of a rise back towards the all-time high are very good.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins: Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin is still unable to shake off its price weakness of the past few months and slipped to a new low of USD 0.106 this week. As a result, the DOGE price temporarily fell below the support level at USD 0.119 before the price was able to recover slightly to the current USD 0.128. Dogecoin now has all the resistance levels in front of its chest again and should find it very difficult to target its highs from 2021 again in the near future.
Bullish Variant (Dogecoin)
As an underperformer in recent months, the Dogecoin price continues to suffer from selling pressure. The bulls must now do everything possible to stabilize the DOGE price above USD 0.119 in order to target the first relevant resistance at USD 0.151 in the next step. On the way to this resistance level, however, the EMA20 (red) and the EMA50 (orange) must first be recaptured. If Dogecoin reaches USD 0.151 in the coming trading days and can break through it, the chart picture will brighten slightly again.
Then the lower edge of the green resistance zone comes into view. Dogecoin failed here on February 7 of this year. The 23 Fibonacci retracement and the upper Bollinger band are also currently running in this area. Dogecoin is likely to fail here in the first attempt. If the overall market rally continues in the coming weeks, Dogecoin is likely to rally towards the EMA200 (blue). The zone between USD 0.19 and USD 0.20 currently represents a strong resistance zone.
Recovery movement is taking shape
Only when Dogecoin breaks through the EMA200 at the daily closing price will the next relevant price target be activated at USD 0.219. Here is a cross-resistance from MA200 (green) and just above the 38 Fibonacci retracement. Again, an immediate reconquest of this resistance zone is not to be planned. If Dogecoin can get stuck here in the medium term and generate a breakout, new targets will be activated at USD 0.238 and USD 0.264. These resistances represent the medium-term price targets for Dogecoin.
If the DOGE price also dynamically overcomes these resist levels in the future, a directional decision for the coming months will be made in the purple resistance zone at the latest. Only when Dogecoin reconquers the resistance level at USD 0.313 at the daily closing price does the maximum price target for the coming trading months come into focus again. This is found at $0.354 and is derived from the 61 Fibonacci retracement. For the time being, higher prices for Dogecoin are not to be expected.
Bearish Variant (Dogecoin)
However, if the DOGE price cannot quickly recover above the EMA20 in the direction of USD 0.151 and slips below the support at USD 0.119 again, an immediate retest of the year low at USD 0.106 should be planned. If Dogecoin does not stabilize here sustainably and slips below it at the end of the day, the correction will initially expand to around USD 0.087. This is where the old all-time high from February 2021 runs. If the overall market also tends south again and Dogecoin slips below USD 0.087 for a long time, the correction will expand towards USD 0.050.
This support mark already acted as a support level in March of last year. The bulls will therefore do everything possible to move Dogecoin north again here. However, if the seller succeeds in breaking through this support sustainably, a fall back to the yellow support zone between USD 0.030 and USD 0.026 is also conceivable. A retest of the maximum bearish target price of USD 0.023 would then no longer be ruled out.
Indicators (Dogecoin)
Both the RSI and the MACD indicator show a sell signal in the daily chart. The same applies to the weekly chart. Here, too, both indicators continue to have an active short signal. As long as Dogecoin cannot generate new buy signals, at least on a daily basis, investors should avoid Dogecoin.
Stability of the top 10
In a weekly comparison, Bitcoin is trading much more strongly than in the last analysis, with a price increase of around five percentage points. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH), is also doing relatively well, gaining six percentage points in a seven-day comparison. Terra (LUNA) leads the list of weekly winners by a wide margin.
The LUNA course is up around 66 percent north of the previous week. Polkadot (DOT) can also increase slightly after several bearish weeks with a six percent price increase. The list of underperformers among the top 10 altcoins is led by the MEME coin Dogecoin (DOGE) with a six percent price correction. Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) are also trending weaker and lose almost two percentage points in value on a weekly basis. The ranking of the ten largest cryptocurrencies shows no place changes for the last seven trading days.
Winners and losers of the week
The crisis in Ukraine also affected the price development of the entire crypto market in the last seven trading days. While it still looked like a weak start to the week on Monday morning, the overall market can recover significantly in the last few hours of trading. The vast majority of the top 100 altcoins are seeing a price premium on a week-to-week basis. Around 70 of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies show a price gain. Overall, however, the percentage price increases are limited.
The list of weekly winners is led by the Anchor Protocol (ANC) with a 67 percent price increase, followed by the Coin Terra (LUNA) ecosystem with a 66 percent price increase. Waves (WAVES) with a price gain of 35 percent and JUNO (JUNO) with a 26 percent increase in value can also increase significantly. With a 25 percent price correction, Convex Finance (CVX) tops the list of weekly losers. BitDAO (BIT) and ECOMI (OMI) also show significant value adjustments with a price discount of around 16 percent. However, the fact that only a good ten of the top 100 altcoins show a double-digit price drop underlines the increasing resilience of the crypto sector to external events.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.89.
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