Epidemic rebound, French elections, return of inflation … At a time when financial markets pulverize records, 2022 promises to be freelance, and risks being the year of all uncertainties.
A fanfare for 2022. At the start of the year, financial indices are reaching historic highs. In Paris, Last Wednesday, the CAC 40 soared 7383 points, a new high, in the crowd of three very favorable days … before falling back on Thursday.
Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 (over 4,700 points) and the Dow Jones (over 36,200 points) are also reaching record levels, while Apple is leading valuations. The American firm became the first company to exceed $ 3 trillion in market capitalization.
However, will the increase continue in 2022? Possible, to believe the strategists of Socit Gnrale, Roland Kayolan and Charles Boissezon, who foresee in 2022 a solid year for European actions, with a CAC 40 close to 7,500 points. To continue their momentum, however, financial markets will have to find the answers three big questions.
Uncertainty n1: what epidemic rebound?
The first is sanitary: Is Omicron announcing the end of the pandemic, or simply its extension? While France passed the 300,000 new cases mark in one day, on January 5, the markets seem to have decided. The studies are rather encouraging that the Omicron variant causes fewer severe forms than the Delta variant. In addition, vaccines are still effective, commented analysts at Saxo Bank, for whom a further sudden stop in economies seems unlikely. For investors, the pandemic is already a thing of the past.
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Uncertainty n2: what global growth?
the 2nd shadow point concerns the real economy: what will be the magnitude of the post-covid recovery? For Nicolas Chron, strategist at Zonebourse, 2022 will be a year in line with the major rebound of 2021. According to forecasts by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the global gross domestic product (GDP) should grow further by 4.5% in 2022. A rate below the 5.6% growth recorded in 2021, but which remains significantly higher than the average of the last 20 years, recalls the analyst.
Already in the third quarter of 2021, the excellent financial results published by companies had exceeded analysts’ expectations, at the same time sparking market euphoria. Socit Gnrale, for example, announced a quarterly profit of 1.6 billion euros, the best result in its history. If the results for the next quarter are not too impacted by the rise in energy prices and the Omicron variant, the markets could remain bullish in the first half of 2022, considers Nicolas Chron.
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Uncertainty n3: mad inflation or under control?
The third question is monetary: will central banks manage to curb inflation without panicking the markets? The development of inflation, which should continue to surprise the rise, and the reaction of central banks to this phenomenon will be the central themes for the markets and the economy. main concern of investors, forecasts AllianzGI, which does not exclude an area of turbulence in the first half of 2022.
The big money-makers should indeed gradually reduce their support for the economy over the coming months. The American Federal Reserve (Fed) is therefore considering three rate hikes in 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) wants to be more conciliatory: it has already assured that there would be no sudden rate hike in 2022.
However, the risk of a major monetary policy error cannot be excluded. Too fast or too strong an action would weigh on still fragile growth and on risky assets such as equities, according to AFP Franck Dixmier, director of bond management at Allianz Global Investors.
10% oscillations anticipate
In summary: many questions, and few clear answers. So what impact for investors? 2022 will be a year marked by more volatility on the financial markets, argues Nicolas Chron. The analyst expects a roller coaster year, with oscillations of plus or minus 10%. In 2022, the investor will have to be more agile. He will need to be pragmatic and know how to take your earnings quickly in the event of a rise in prices, warns Nicolas Chron.
Investments: more than one in two French people now ready to lose in order to earn more
2022 therefore promises to be a year full of twists and turns for stock marketers. Nevertheless, timer the market, that is, finding the perfect time to acquire a stock, is often complicated. This is the reason why 89.4% of individuals lose money on the stock market according to the Autorit des Marchs Financiers (AMF).
As an individual, it is very complicated to identify companies and sectors that are better suited to appreciate. Compared to a professional investor, you have less time and resources to devote to it and, above all, you do not have access to the freshest and most complete financial information possible, explained Laurent Puget, chairman of the management company. of OTEA Capital assets. So how to limit the risk of loss?
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How to survive the crash
There will be a crash. There is always one. The question is when. And that, no one can say with certainty, believes Matthias Baccino, Managing Director France of Trade Republic, a no-broker from Germany. He prefers to register the investment in the stock market in a long time. 2022 is the year of all uncertainties. To avoid market fluctuations, it is in the interest of savers invest small amounts the hard way.
This is the technique of dollar cost averaging (DCA), which involves investing a fixed amount at regular intervals. One of the most proven strategies for obtaining satisfactory gains while limiting risks. According to AMF estimates, a diversified equity portfolio thus provides a 5% 7% return per year over 15 to 20 years.
To profit from the growth of markets over time, investors can also look to Megatrends, continues Matthias Baccino, that is to say to bet on these emerging trends as the cybersecurity, the water and the Automation, which we already know will have a lasting effect over the next few years.
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