Uan excessively violent, but brief contraction, followed by a rapid return to normalcy: a year ago, this is how the Covid-19 shock scenario was envisaged. On the surface, the recovery was only delayed: in June, economic activity was only 2.5% below its level at the end of 2019, and in December, the catch-up should be completed; denying the alarms, employment and unemployment have returned to their previous lows; there was hardly any more, in July, than 3% of employees in partial unemployment ; and the investment industrial should this year erase the decline of last year.
At the same time, however, signs of temporary disturbances and signs of lasting mutations are multiplying in a jumble, to which the health shock has probably given a boost. What is needed is no longer the image of a temporary shock, but that of a concussion that leaves you sore, a little dazed, and above all unable to distinguish temporary disorders, sequelae and new learning.
Deregulation is first of all sectoral, with consumption of durable goods that exceeds clearly the pre-crisis level and consumption of services still depressed. About a tenth of the economy (hotels, culture and events, etc.) shows a decline of around 10% in activity, while digital and telecoms are up 7%.
Some sectors see their activity limited by insufficient demand; others face supply constraints: if, for example, aeronautics continues to lack outlets, the automobile industry is handicapped by the shortage of chips and restaurants suffer from a lack of personnel.
Globalization is upside down
There is general perplexity about the job market. In the USA, the job deficit is still 5%, but companies are struggling to recruit, and the unemployment exit rate is ten points lower than what the level of job vacancies would lead to expect. In France, the situation is less tense, but today companies feel more often constrained by a lack of personnel (more than one in five) than by the lack of outlets (one in six). And in 70% of cases, they say they have difficulty recruiting. Between the effects of support systems, psycho-social traumas, job changes and employees’ questions about their future, no one really knows what is going on.
You have 61.47% of this article to read. The rest is for subscribers only.