However, larger advances are possible
ISW: Russia occupied only 305 square kilometers of land in 2024
April 3, 2024, 9:21 a.m
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According to an analysis by the ISW, despite their great efforts, Russian troops have only made minor advances this year. However, due to the poor equipment of Kiev’s armed forces on some sectors of the front, there is a risk of significant terrain gains.
According to evaluations by the Institute for War Studies (ISW), the Russian invaders have reoccupied around 305 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year. This roughly corresponds to the area of Dortmund. Russia’s Defense Minister Shoigu recently spoke of 400 square kilometers. Ukraine has a total area of around 600,000 square kilometers, of which the Russian armed forces occupy around a fifth.
Given the rather slow pace of advance, the ISW does not currently see any major Russian offensive underway. This is also indicated by the fact that the Ukrainian troops have little ammunition to defend themselves due to the delay in the billion-dollar aid package from the USA.
The US think tank continues to assume that Kiev’s troops are forced to use their limited resources primarily in “critical sectors of the front” due to the shortage of materials. An approach at the expense of sectors that are not the focus of the most serious fighting. According to the scientists, the risk of a Russian breakthrough is “increased” in these areas and the front line is therefore more vulnerable overall, “than the relatively slow pace of the Russian advances suggests.” Given the fragile situation in some sections, according to ISW, there may be opportunities for the Russian armed forces to “achieve operationally significant gains in the future.”
Fighting continues to focus on Avdiivka
Military expert Colonel Reisner from the Austrian army recently told ntv.de that the Russian side was “apparently convinced” that it could achieve a breakthrough near Avdiivka given the heavy fighting in recent days. Kiev’s troops there are currently working hard to expand the second line of defense.
The sector of the front near Avdiivka is considered one of the most contested. The Russians would have difficulty advancing, but were “clearly superior” in artillery and would continue to “wear down” the Ukrainian positions with glide bombs, said Reisner.
The multi-billion dollar aid package from the USA, for which new hope has recently arisen, could improve the situation for Kiev’s armed forces. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson spoke in an interview with Fox News about pushing forward a “product” that would include some innovations after the end of a parliamentary recess on April 9th.