Despite its election victory, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party suffered significant setbacks in the European elections in Hungary. The rapid rise of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party indicates a change in the political landscape in Hungary. What does this mean for the future of Orbán and Fidesz’s rule? Questions for the Hungarian political scientist and social psychologist Péter Krekó.
ntv.de: 44.8 percent for Fidesz – how do you rate the victory of Orbán’s party in the European elections in Hungary?
Péter Krekó: Fidesz managed to maintain its leadership position, but fell short of expectations. It lost two seats and now has only 11. More importantly, however, the gap with its main challenger, which since last Sunday has been Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, has narrowed significantly. The 29.6 percent for Magyar, who was swept up on a wave of public discontent in just three months, shows the strong desire for change in Hungary and the limits of the Orbán regime’s propaganda machine.
Péter Krekó received his doctorate from Budapest’s Eötvös Loránd University with a thesis on the social psychology of conspiracy theories. Today, the political analyst and disinformation expert heads the Political Capital Institute in Budapest.
(Photo: private)
Do you think that 44.8 percent of the vote is still a bad result for Fidesz?
This is their worst result in European elections so far. In the last European elections, Fidesz achieved 52 percent, and since 2004 it has never achieved less than 47 percent. At the same time, the party invested millions in online advertising and posters, and Orbán himself acknowledged the enormous scale of the mobilization efforts. Despite this massive campaign and the attempts to discredit Magyar, Fidesz fell short of expectations. But you are right: 44.8 percent is impressive. We should not be too quick to assume a catastrophe for Fidesz.
Magyar’s supporters see this as the beginning of the end of Fidesz. Wishful thinking? Or is Tisza’s rise a real threat to the future of the Orbán regime?
Fidesz’s seemingly unalterable and eternal rule is now in question. Magyar, as a former Fidesz insider, could inspire others to follow his example, which could lead to more revelations about corruption and insecurity in the regime. Although this could accelerate the erosion, Fidesz remains a highly efficient and adaptable power machine. It is not yet the end of the Orbán regime, but opportunities for change have clearly opened up.
What attracts Péter Magyar’s voters? What is the Magyar formula?
Magyar is credible because, as a former regime insider, he seems capable of defeating Orbán. That is the only thing that matters in Hungary right now. His rise is remarkable. People are not attracted to him because they fully identify with his ideology. For example, former liberal voters support his movement even though it is not liberal at all.
It sounds like Magyar has no real program. Is that enough to maintain the current momentum until the next elections in spring 2026?
So far, the Tisza Party has deliberately kept its programme vague in order to appeal to a wide audience. However, in the near future they will have to take a stand, which could alienate some voters. The momentum they have gained so far cannot be maintained for two years. Another factor is that they will be represented in the European Parliament and the Budapest City Council, but not in the national parliament. This could pose a challenge when it comes to reaching voters across the country.
What challenges will the Tisza party face from the government?
It will be a very difficult environment. Fidesz will create tensions within the party and put pressure on it from outside, probably using all state means. Orbán has always known how to adapt to difficult situations. Péter Magyar and Tisza have the chance to hold out until 2026 and even become a governing party if they win the election. But the road to get there is long and rocky. Fidesz has many advantages in an illiberal regime that Magyar does not have.
Given the illiberal regime and the unfair electoral system that Orbán and Fidesz have introduced, is it even possible to defeat the government in elections?
So far there are no signs that it is impossible. In the last 14 years we have not seen how Fidesz behaves when its power is really threatened. This could now reinforce some illiberal practices. I believe that it is possible to defeat Fidesz even in this environment of free but very unfair elections. Of course it is very difficult and the state can use its instruments against you.
How has Magyar’s success affected the opposition parties?
His rise has harmed the opposition more than the government. Of the 21 seats, only two went to left-liberal parties. This has shifted Hungary’s political landscape significantly to the right. Fidesz will likely join a Eurosceptic or far-right faction in the European Parliament, while the Tisza party will join the European People’s Party. The Hungarian left and the Greens face a major challenge.
How will this affect your future strategies?
I don’t see the left parties gaining traction. In fact, the election result is likely to lead to a further erosion of the left. But this shift also means that aspects of their agenda, such as environmental and social policy, are now spread across the right spectrum. Fidesz stresses its commitment to solidarity. Péter Magyar may also need to incorporate green and social policy elements to gain strong support.
Let’s talk about Europe. Is Magyar a pro-European politician?
I think he is pro-European, but a certain nationalist Euroscepticism is part of his rhetoric. He agrees with some elements of the government’s policy on the war in Ukraine. He also shares with Fidesz a certain distrust of the US. His position on European and foreign policy is more a “Fidesz light” position than an antithesis to Orbán’s views. His vision of Europe is not entirely different from Orbán’s. But there is one important difference: Péter Magyar speaks of Hungary’s future within the EU, while Orbán increasingly sees the EU as the ultimate arch-enemy.
Will the election result have an impact on Orbán’s hostile attitude towards the EU, as you described?
Yes, I think this will increase his hostility. With the European People’s Party the dominant force in the European Parliament and Péter Magyar taking Orbán’s place there, tensions are expected to increase. This could also affect the Hungarian EU Council Presidency in the second half of the year. Orbán’s obstructionist tactics, such as vetoing important decisions in the EU Council, are expected to increase.
Christian-Zsolt Varga spoke to Péter Krekó