PlanB, see you in 2 to 3 years – How can we interpret the recent loss of $40,000 per bitcoin (BTC)? The most optimistic will point to reassuring statistics linked to HODlers, they will insist that the current drop is a “back to better jump”, and that bitcoin had already shown its ability to rebound strongly at lower levels. Does this speech correspond to reality, or is it just another form of narration to better sell bitcoin by evoking its historical resilience?
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Bitcoin at $100,000: Not this year, but later, much later?
In an interview with CNBC published on February 20, 2022, Huobi co-founder Du Jun shared his insights into the current price status of bitcoin and the next probable dates of a bull market.
Du Jun pointed to the fact that bull markets are closely related to halving which occurs approximately every four years. It looked back on the last halving which took place in May 2020, and the all-time high of $68,000 reached by bitcoin subsequently in 2021. The price of bitcoin now seems to be moving in a downtrend since this peak.
This pattern is similar to bitcoin’s price swings after the halving in 2016 and the all-time high the following year, followed by a general decline seen in the markets.
Du Jun believes that bitcoin now has started a bearish phase. In the same spirit, the analysis Matthew Hyland has also pointed out that if bitcoin closes the month of February 2022 in the red, the markets will therefore be entitled to a fourth consecutive bearish monthly candlestick, a first since the bear market of 2018.
Based on this cyclical reasoning, the next bitcoin bull market will then occur end of 2024, beginning of 2025.
The Huobi co-founder, however, qualifies these analyzes and forecasts by admitting “there are so many other factors that can affect the market too – like geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent Covid, also affect the market. “.
The crypto winter could therefore last several more months or even several years, according to the co-founder of Huobi. The end of February 2022 will probably bring more clarity to the current situation. The bears seem to have won, but with bitcoin you should never sell the skin of the bulls before killing them.
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