Hurricane Kirk arrives in France: should we be worried?

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The remains of Hurricane Kirk, currently category 4, will hit the Atlantic coast of France from Wednesday October 9. Strong winds and rain should be expected.

The current weather is tormented. At the beginning of October, ex-tropical storm Joyce arrived in France, causing heavy rainfall and powerful gusts. But, starting this Tuesday, October 8 in the evening, another phenomenon will hit the metropolis: Hurricane Kirk.

It is currently a category 4 tropical hurricane (i.e. with winds of 210 to 249 km/h). It formed on the Atlantic coast of Senegal, before intensifying and becoming one of the most significant hurricanes of the season. When it hits France, it will no longer strictly speaking be a hurricane. It will be the “remnants” of the hurricane that will affect us, what we call an extratropical storm. Gusts could still reach 120 to 130 km/h, on the coasts and inland.

Where in France will Hurricane Kirk be felt?

The remains of Hurricane Kirk will hit the French Atlantic coast. According to La Chaîne Météo, current modeling shows that the most probable trajectory “ would move from the center-west to the north-east, because the low pressure core would circulate approximately along the axis of the Loire ”, as can be seen on the two maps below. In this diagonal trajectory, the regions of Pays de la Loire, Nouvelle Aquitaine, Centre, Île-de-France, Hauts-de-France and Grand Est are concerned.

Forecast trajectory of Hurricane Kirk from October 9, 2024. // Source: La Chaîne Météo / Meteo Consult
Forecast trajectory of Hurricane Kirk from October 9, 2024. // Source: La Chaîne Météo / Meteo Consult
Wind gusts likely during the passage of Hurricane Kirk in France. // Source: La Chaîne Météo / Meteo ConsultWind gusts likely during the passage of Hurricane Kirk in France. // Source: La Chaîne Météo / Meteo Consult
Wind gusts likely during the passage of Hurricane Kirk in France. // Source: La Chaîne Météo / Meteo Consult

The meteorological situation, on this trajectory, is therefore clearly qualified as a storm. In addition to the wind, heavy precipitation can be expected.

Good news, however: the risk of submersion on the coasts is quite low, because, at this time, “ the tidal coefficients will be very low “. Human and material risks will therefore be mainly linked to strong winds. Outdoor precautions, in the most affected areas, will be required.

The danger, however, remains less significant than in 1987 and the famous “hurricane of 1987”, where gusts of up to 220 km/h affected Brittany in particular. But its name is misleading, because it was not a tropical cyclone transforming into an extratropical storm. “ It was actually a usual Atlantic depression which exploded on contact with the remnants of an old tropical storm under the influence of a very powerful jet stream. », specifies the Weather Channel. “ This is not the same system that is expected this week.


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