The power-political changes in Europe do not take national borders into account. A highly networked country like Switzerland is therefore particularly susceptible to pressure tests.
The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and the Crimean bridge are typical of hybrid warfare: infrastructures of strategic importance are hit, but the actors keep a low profile.
The pandemic swept over Switzerland within a few days – initially with much more force than the outbreak of war on February 24. As soon as the Federal Council spoke of the “new corona virus” for the first time, life came to a standstill. The “measures” changed things that were taken for granted and also the language.
But as the shockwaves of the pandemic ebb, the storm unleashed by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is only now looming over Swiss reality.
Immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the focus was initially on the women and children who fled to Western Europe to escape the violence in their homeland. Switzerland responded with protection status S, which made it easier for Ukrainian refugees to be admitted.
Another challenge was the combination of a failed energy policy and dependence on Russian raw materials. A shortage remains, despite all the all-clear signals from the Federal Council, a real threat. If not this year, then later.
Hub of the Alps
Even more than the pandemic, the war is now bringing the end of Swiss certainties. The effects of the new power politics with military means affect Switzerland as well as its neighboring countries. Because of their geographical location in the Alps, their importance could increase again. Essential nerve cords of European coexistence run through this hub in all directions: politically, economically and also humanly.
This is illustrated by the natural currents, the rivers that flow out of Switzerland into the North Sea, the Black Sea, the Adriatic Sea and the Tyrrhenian Sea. Somewhat more abstractly, in cyberspace, a large part of the data in global payment transactions is routed via the canton of Thurgau. The data center of the bank communication network Swift is located in Diessenhofen, protected by the Thurgau cantonal police.
The same applies to electricity: The European interconnected grid, which is particularly prominent at the moment, has its origins in Switzerland: Im «Star of Laufenburg» the high-voltage lines from Germany, France and Switzerland have been coming together since 1958. Meanwhile, the Swiss power grid is connected to the European one at 42 points. If the river gets out of step, this can mean, among other things, a total blackout in Italy.
Flow control as a test field for power politics
The Alps as a transition prepare Switzerland for innovation. The Swiss company Hupac is a leader in combined transport between Northern and Southern Europe. The main truck-to-rail terminal is in Busto Arsizio, north of Milan. A critical infrastructure of the Swiss system is therefore located outside the national borders.
In a January 2019 study, Swiss security expert Heiko Borchert pointed out that flow control, i.e. the influence on the movement of people, goods and data, has become a geopolitical battlefield: “Flow Control is the test field on which a new major system competition is emerging,” writes Borchert. He sees four different fields in which this competition should play out:
Battlefields by Flow Control after Heiko Borchert
- zones of influence: Major and regional powers want to dominate supply chains. They are the center of power development because they allow control over the strategic currents.
- standard spaces: The federal intelligence service has been warning of this development for at least three years. The world could divide along norms, principles and standards. The aim is to determine the “rules of the game” of international politics and economic cooperation.
- narratives: The aim is to influence public opinion – worldwide. One’s own notion of good and bad behavior is reinterpreted as questions of sovereignty and security.
- prosperity models: Democracy is no longer seen as the only way to economic success. Authoritarian state capitalism in China and Russia has established itself as an alternative at least since the financial crisis.
The pandemic and the war could call into question the idea of an illiberal market economy. Such trends pose a particular challenge for Switzerland, which has established itself from the Alpine region as a global trading power. In his study, Borchert points out that the different concepts of sovereignty call international rules into question. It will be replaced by preferential rules “which only apply to groups of like-minded actors”.
Ambiguous struggle of all actors
In other words, smaller states need to wrap up warm to maintain their independence while remaining competitive. In a world that is once again being shaped by the law of the strongest, everyone no longer has the same stakes. First and foremost, this threatens economic competition and free trade, but also the security system.
The open war against Ukraine reveals what has been on the horizon for some time: the major powers are attempting to assert themselves in their spheres of influence, using military means if necessary. The hybrid war waged with disinformation and sabotage is much more opaque. This form of warfare is not new, but with the Internet and global networking, the battlefield has expanded significantly.
The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and the Crimean Bridge are typical of this development. Infrastructures of strategic importance are hit, but the players are keeping a low profile. This leaves the field open for speculation. The credibility of decision-makers suffers. Insecurity is spreading among the population. Attacks of this kind are demonstrations of power with multiple messages.
The Kremlin is particularly active in this battlefield. But the West also sometimes fights hard. Countries that trade across norm spaces and zones of influence are suspect in the current geopolitical situation. The fact that the Chinese ambassador in Bern recently called on Switzerland to behave well in an interview in the “NZZ am Sonntag” is less surprising than attempts at pressure by friendly states.
Heralds of power-political pressure attempts?
A first assessment of events that are directly or indirectly related to the war in Ukraine shows how Switzerland could come under pressure:
- energy: In order to be able to produce enough electricity in an emergency, the Federal Council decided to build a reserve power plant near Birr in the canton of Aargau. This could generate two-thirds of the output of the decommissioned Mühleberg nuclear power plant. But the eight gas and oil turbines emit the same amount of CO per day2 looks like the whole city of Zurich. This is a high price to pay for the unregulated relationship with the EU in this area, especially in view of Switzerland’s special situation in Europe: The “Stern von Laufenburg” is still a hub of the continental power grid and stands for cross-border cooperation.
- migration: In Buchs people are stranded every day who are looking for a better life in the West. This autumn, the number of irregular immigrants has risen sharply. Whether this is an attempt by Russia or Turkey to destabilize Europe cannot be said with certainty. But in the German and Swiss media, the first bits of hatred are beginning: Switzerland is not complying with the Dublin Agreement and is simply waving people through. Berlin and Bern deny. But the topic has enormous divisive potential.
- supply chains: Because of 12,400 rounds of 35mm ammunition for the twin cannon of the anti-aircraft tank Gepard, the German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has actually asked Switzerland to break the applicable law. It is correct that the Federal Council remains firm on the matter. But the challenge remains: the Swiss armaments industry is part of the western supply chain, which should be particularly reliable in the event of war.
All irritations can still be dismissed as misunderstandings or exaggerated headlines. However, the hustle and bustle and also the public interest in the topics indicate an uncertainty that is associated with the special case of Switzerland in the middle of Europe. It’s less about the hard facts and more about a narrative that builds up: It’s the story of a rich, selfish and essentially lacking in solidarity country that only wants to profit.
New Ukrainian ambassador from January
The really big issues are still missing: the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, initially demanded the release of the oligarchs’ funds, which are suspected to be in the accounts of the Swiss banks, rather rhetorically. But the topic has explosive potential: A raid on a UBS branch in Munich on Tuesday immediately found its way to the outraged public via the German news magazine “Spiegel”.
The focus of the revelation is on common buzzwords: “In the case of the Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov, BKA investigators are searching Swiss UBS branches for ‘Spiegel’ information. Your customer is said to have laundered millions,” says the lead. The subtext is clear: of course it is a major Swiss bank that the Federal Criminal Police Office has targeted.
Switzerland, as Europe’s actually critical infrastructure, has some strong instruments for self-protection, especially when it comes to the battlefields of flow control. But as far as electricity is concerned, the lack of an electricity agreement with the EU weakens Bern’s position in order to guarantee the minimum of neighborly solidarity in an emergency situation.
In addition, key infrastructures of the Swiss system are located outside the country’s borders: the Hupac company has to rely on the Italian authorities to protect the terminal in Busto Arsizio. Important wind farms run by Swiss electricity companies are located in northern Europe. Bern has no access to this in an emergency.
The pressure from Berlin or Brussels could increase in the coming months. In January, Artem Ribchenko, who understood Switzerland’s role very well, will be replaced by a confidante of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. At least the tonality in direct relation to Kyiv should change with it.
The Federal Council sees a lasting deterioration in the security policy environment
geo. Bern – On Wednesday, the state government passed the annual Threat Assessment Report. It draws particular attention to the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. The European peace order has been shaken, writes the Federal Council. He also points out that the pandemic has triggered a surge in digitization. This is often at the expense of security. According to the Federal Council, attacks on critical infrastructures are not only possible in cyberspace, but also physically. Conventional hostilities in Ukraine threaten, for example, the civilian nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia.