The economic recovery is accelerating in a world weakened by desynchronized growth trajectories and by growing inequalities. In its forecasts published Tuesday, April 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global growth of 6% for 2021, against 5.5% in its latest forecasts in January, and warns of the growing disparities between countries.
In the preamble to the report, Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, is concerned about “Colossal challenges posed by divergent recoveries both within and between countries, as well as by the continuing economic damage of the crisis”. Recovery is much faster in advanced economies, which can count on massive support plans, including the $ 1.9 trillion (€ 1.6 trillion) plan announced by US President Joe Biden, and rapid deployment vaccination campaigns.
After China, which has returned to its pre-crisis level of GDP, the United States should, in turn, see the end of the tunnel in 2021, with growth of 6.4%. “What we are seeing is a recovery at several speeds, which is increasingly driven by two engines, the United States and China”, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva observed at a conference on March 30. The Washington-based institution has raised its growth forecasts to 4.4% for the euro area, which should not return to its pre-pandemic GDP level by 2022, and for sub-Saharan Africa which, after registering the largest GDP contraction in its history in 2020, is expected to experience small growth to 3.4% in 2021.
Cumulative per capita income between 2020 and 2022 will be 20% lower than it would have been without the Covid-19 crisis in developing countries (excluding China), compared to only 11% in economies advances. Emerging countries have been sinking into the crisis for a year. They are the big losers from the pandemic.
Inequalities are growing
At the origin of these divergent trajectories, there are health restrictions and support plans which vary from one country to another, but also differences in sectoral specializations, in the share of jobs that can be provided in teleworking or even in the quality of digital infrastructures. The Pacific islands, which have many handicaps, such as dependence on tourism and limited budgetary room for maneuver, should experience a GDP 10% lower in 2024 than what was expected before the pandemic.
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