SThere is consensus among economists to note the growth deficit in Europe compared to the United States, analyzes diverge on the factors to be put forward to explain the gradual widening of an economic gap which has been widening since now three decades and brings Europe, in relative terms, to its position before the “thirty glorious years”. Recent economic factors – the war in Ukraine, the rise in energy prices – have widened this gap spectacularly and raised awareness. But only structural factors can explain the gradual and apparently inexorable aspect of European decline.
Among these, immigration is a fundamental factor, strangely absent from the debate on “dropping out”. However, immigration contributes to the vitality of the American economy from both a cyclical and structural point of view. In comparison, immigration to Europe, although equivalent in volume, pales in comparison. To explain this, two aspects seem decisive: on the one hand, the structure of immigration is much more qualified in the United States, which makes it possible to continuously fuel the sources of long-term growth which are innovation, entrepreneurship and integration into the global economy (“ Skilled immigration, a visa for growth », Emmanuelle Auriol and Hillel Rapoport, note from the Economic Analysis Council n° 67, November 2021); and, on the other hand, immigration to the United States reacts much more to the economic situation, to which it adjusts, making it possible to cushion economic shocks.
For the most part, immigration to Europe has a pyramid structure, with a fairly broad low-skilled base. In the United States, a third of immigrants have higher education qualifications (the same proportion as among Americans). It must be said that for the most qualified, the attractiveness of the United States is exceptional, and therefore difficult, if not impossible, to compete. This is due to the fact that human capital is characterized by “increasing returns”, which means that it tends to agglomerate, to concentrate where it is already abundant: the more engineers or researchers there are share, the higher their productivity – and therefore their remuneration – is. First-generation immigrants thus represent more than a third of inventors or business creators, while they represent 15% of the working population in the United States. In France or Germany, for the same share of 15% of the active population, they only provide 10% of inventors and entrepreneurs, or three times less.
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