(Adds context of delays in paragraph 4, analyst quote in paragraph 7) by Tim Hepher and Alexander Cornwell
Middle Eastern carriers appear set to order tens of billions of dollars worth of long-haul planes as the Dubai Airshow opens on Monday, with Emirates renewing its confidence in the delayed Boeing 777X while facing new competition from rivals like Turkish Airlines.
Hosts Emirates and its low-cost cousin flyDubai are set to make their mark on the world’s second-largest aerospace event, industry sources say, despite concerns about a decline in the economically key travel sector due to tensions in the Middle East .
That includes a new order for several dozen Boeing 777Xs, they said, giving a boost to the program amid uncertainty over the timing of the world’s largest jet, currently expected in 2025 after a delay of five years.
People familiar with the flagship program said risks were tilted toward further delays, with Boeing first assessing the impact of stricter certification rules on other projects. On Friday, Boeing said there was no change to its schedule.
Emirates is the world’s largest user of wide-body aircraft, including Airbus A380 superjumbos and current-generation Boeing 777s. It has publicly stated that it plans to order more upgraded 777Xs, Airbus A350s and smaller Boeing 787s.
Of these, the 787 is the least likely to enter service immediately.
FlyDubai uses Boeing 737 MAX narrow-body aircraft, which compete with the Airbus A320neo, and is set to order more planes in this category this week, according to sources.
Emirates, Airbus AIR.PA and Boeing declined to comment.
Industry officials estimate that airlines around the world are negotiating behind the scenes to buy some 700 to 800 new planes, including 200 to 300 of the world’s largest planes, to make up for shelved fleet replacement plans. during the pandemic.
How many of these bear fruit in time for the November 13-17 show will depend on the state of negotiations and the fight for the limelight, with Gulf groups facing a circle of competition from wider and wider.
Turkish Airlines (THY) THYAO.IS burst onto the trade show agenda on Saturday with the announcement by state-run Anadolu news agency that it was in talks to buy up to 355 Airbus jets.
Following further discussions, industry sources said the airline could announce at least part of the deal on Monday.
It said it was in talks for a total of 600 planes, likely split between Airbus and Boeing.
A Middle East source called the prospect of a Turkish order a “bold move”, boosting competition at the presentation event.
However, according to other sources, it is premature to think that the new player in the region, the Saudi airline Riyadh Air, could place a large order for narrow-body jets from Dubai.
The airline, which suggested it would make a decision in the coming weeks, declined to comment.
Aviation powerhouse Dubai holds biennial aerospace competition amid Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, which is driving up demand for weapons and closing airspace, making flights longer and more expensive for some airlines.
Travel analytics company ForwardKeys said Friday that flight bookings have fallen worldwide since October 7.
Bookings to the Middle East fell 26%.
“There is enough statistical evidence, at least in the short term, to show that there has been a substantial decline in ticket sales in the region,” said Daniel Silke, director of Cape Town-based Political Futures Consultancy. .
Analysts say the war in Gaza is also likely to boost demand for weapons, which has already increased over the past 18 months when the United States and its allies rearmed Ukraine against Russia. However, few major arms contracts are expected at the show.