The positive corona test by US President Trump worries shareholders – stock exchanges around the world are taking cover. The effects on US politics can be immense, analysts fear. For Trump, the infection comes "at an extremely unfavorable time," it says.
The positive corona test by US President Donald Trump has caused unrest in the financial markets around the world. In Japan, the Nikkei index, which comprises 225 stocks, was 0.7 weaker at 23,029.90 points. The European futures were in the red, the Dax fell in the first few minutes of trading by 1.34 percent to 12,560 points. Trump and his wife Melania had tested positive for the pathogen, the US president said on Twitter.
For the US President, this comes "at an extremely unfavorable time", commented Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. The markets could become turbulent, especially if Trump went through a serious illness. "The already existing uncertainties would then increase again." Especially in the final sprint, the candidate's full energy is required. According to Gitzel, the consequences of the illness for the outcome of the election depend largely on its course.
"Should Donald Trump suffer a difficult disease course, the President's credibility will be damaged for good." Trump has often downplayed the effects of the virus. A severe course of the disease would therefore be good for Joe Biden under a sober analysis. "The president's viral illness could cause unrest in the financial markets if it came to a difficult course of the disease. The already existing uncertainties would then increase again." That much is certain Weeks before the elections will be turbulent, "said Gitzel.
If Trump falls ill only slightly and recovers quickly, he could meet with more approval from the population, said Yako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo. "However, the illness hinders his electoral opportunities and the time before the election is running out." As long as it is not clear whether the next President will be Trump or Joe Biden, it is difficult for the markets to position themselves clearly.
The oil price fell on the commodity market. A barrel of light US oil was 3.9 percent cheaper to $ 37.22, while Brent North Sea oil was 3.7 percent lower at $ 39.40. The oil price is heading for a weekly minus of six percent in the US and seven percent for Brent, which is the second consecutive week decline.
"Oil remains the weakest link"
In addition to the positive test of the US president, the standstill in negotiations for a further stimulus package in the US weighed on the mood. "Oil remains the weakest link in the corona headlines because Trump's positive test shows that everyone is susceptible to the virus," said Stephen Innes, market strategist at brokerage firm AXI. Now it is becoming more likely that Biden will win the election.
Financial markets usually tend to view a Republican election victory positively because they hope for lower taxes and less regulation. In contrast, if Biden wins the election, higher taxes are expected, which should be assessed negatively. At the same time, however, it is expected that the Democrat will increase spending on infrastructure.
"Depending on the winner, different companies should benefit, but overall we hardly see any major differences in the market effects," stated the experts at Commerzbank. "From the point of view of the markets it would be important that the winner be determined quickly."
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