Import ban for the EU?
Gas supply secured even without Russia, according to study
23.05.2024, 07:15 a.m.
Listen to article
This audio version was artificially generated. More info | Send feedback
Eastern Europe in particular remains dependent on Russia’s energy drip. According to an analysis by the economic research institute DIW, gas supplies in the EU would not be a problem even without Russian imports. Other suppliers are therefore ready.
According to a study by the DIW economic research institute, a ban on imports of Russian natural gas into the EU would not endanger the gas supply in the European Union. Even if gas demand in the EU remained high until 2030, it would be possible to completely do without Russian natural gas, the study says.
“Gas demand could be met by pipeline imports from other countries and LNG without expanding the infrastructure in almost all scenarios,” the authors write. Supply could also be ensured in Central and Eastern European EU countries that are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, such as Austria and Hungary. “Security of supply therefore does not stand in the way of further EU sanctions against Russia,” the study states. The study was based on models that assumed both rapid and slow declines in natural gas demand.
Although the EU is now importing only a quarter of the original amount from Russia following the Russian attack on Ukraine, “the country remains an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and still has some Central and Eastern European countries under its control in terms of energy policy.”
Austria gets almost all its gas from Russia
Across the EU, Russia currently covers around 14 percent of natural gas demand. “But Germany and Europe will be able to get by without imports from Russia in the coming decades, even countries that are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, such as Austria and Hungary,” explained author Franziska Holz.
According to the Federal Ministry of Energy, 93 percent of gas imports in Austria came from Russia in March 2024, and as much as 98 percent in December 2023. If the EU were to impose sanctions on Russian natural gas, the gap would be closed primarily via Norway and the USA, the study continues. “But countries such as Algeria, Qatar, Nigeria and Azerbaijan would also replace the loss of Russian natural gas – even if demand in the EU did not fall as quickly as planned.”
The authors believe that it is urgently necessary to distribute imports across more sources. “All European countries have understood that they need to distribute their demand across more natural gas sources than they did before.” The import of LNG will become more important in all scenarios, especially in a delayed decline in demand scenario that assumes consistently high consumption until the early 2030s.
Expansion of LNG terminals “seriously oversized”
“If the five billion cubic meters of LNG that the EU currently imports from Russia each quarter were eliminated, these imports could manage in almost all scenarios without the expansions currently being planned,” stressed study author Christian von Hirschhausen. Only in one scenario would the existing LNG capacities in the EU in Italy and Croatia have to be slightly expanded. “The currently planned expansion of LNG import terminals is greatly oversized,” said von Hirschhausen.
The European energy industry is moving towards a natural gas phase-out, explained Claudia Kemfert, head of the DIW Energy Department. The rapid switch to renewable energies is not only sensible in terms of climate policy. “It also makes a significant contribution to reducing existing import dependencies and thus the supposed susceptibility of some European countries to blackmail.”