In Africa, the fear of a major food crisis

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The kilo of millet is on fire in Bamako; cooking oil is increasingly scarce and expensive in Nairobi; the box of eggs has become a luxury item in the markets of Lagos… Signs of pressure on the prices of basic foodstuffs are multiplying across Africa, stoking fears of a general food crisis on this already very serious continent. vulnerable, where one in five people are not getting enough food.

The concern is all the more acute as world food prices rose again in November for the fourth consecutive month, reaching their highest level since July 2011, according to the monthly barometer published on December 2 by the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In one year, this indicator, which aggregates the prices on the international markets of several basic products (cereals, dairy products, sugar, oils, meats, etc.), has climbed by more than 27%.

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This inflation will increase the bill of African states dependent on imports to feed their populations. For example, Africa imports a third of the cereals it consumes – and even more than 50% in North Africa – according to the FAO. However, wheat prices are now reaching an unprecedented level since May 2011. A challenge in countries where households can spend up to two-thirds of their income on food.

Soaring prices revive the specter of the 2007-2008 food crisis. At the time, the prices of wheat and then of other cereals had almost doubled. An auction which had triggered violent hunger riots across the world and in particular on the African continent, from Dakar to Ouagadougou, via Cairo.

The heavy weight of the pandemic

“The situation is worrying, but also more complex than in 2008, says Jean Senahoun, economist at the FAO regional office for Africa. There is, as at the time, a surge in prices, but there are other shocks such as Covid-19, major climatic disturbances and numerous conflicts. “

The pandemic has taken a heavy toll on food systems. First, by causing job and income losses on a continent which in 2020 experienced its first recession for a quarter of a century. The food purchasing power of the populations has been severely shaken. Even more so in countries which have seen their currencies depreciate, such as Ghana, Nigeria or Sudan: the fall in currencies has amplified imported inflation there.

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