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All remedies are now exhausted. The Angolan Constitutional Court rejected, Thursday, September 8, a request by the National Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (Unita) to invalidate the August 24 general elections. The elements of dispute “does not allow the overall result to be called into question” of the poll, said the supreme court. According to the results communicated five days after the vote by the National Electoral Commission (CNE), the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) won with 51.17% of the vote ahead of Unita (43.95% ), the main opposition party. The cumulative score of the other six formations does not exceed 5%.
Angola is a Portuguese-speaking country of 34.5 million inhabitants where, at the end of each election, the MPLA wins. This has been the case since 1975, the year of the end of Portuguese colonization. The ballot has never been so close, but the principle was once again verified in 2022: the ” change ” promised throughout the meeting by Adalberto Costa Junior, the Unita candidate, will have to wait. “A hora é agora! » (“The hour has come! ») asserted the slogan of his campaign.
Unsurprisingly, the 220 deputies of the National Assembly will re-elect Joao Lourenço, 68, for five more years at the presidential palace in Cidade alta. His induction is scheduled for September 15. In 2027, when the second term of this former artillery general trained in the USSR will have expired, it will be more than half a century since the red and black flag with a yellow star of the MPLA flies over Angola.
“The situation of this party is comparable to that of Frelimo [Front de libération du Mozambique] in Mozambique and that of the ANC [African National Congress] in South Africa, emphasizes Benjamin Augé, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and author of the report “Angola under Joao Lourenço, a minimal change in the MPLA state” (2019). These political formations have drawn their strength from the struggle against a rival party or a hated regime. Once power is conquered, they retain it for several decades, even if their results crumble over the ballots. »
The legitimacy of the ballot is debated
With clockwork regularity, the MPLA has lost some 10 points in each election. The party, which could boast of gathering 82% of the vote in 2008, saw its score drop to 72% in 2012, 61% in 2017 and therefore 51% five years later.
By locking down the organization of the ballot, the machinery of administration and the public media, could the MPLA lose? ” The party set up an organization in which defeat was unthinkable, answers Benjamin Augé. He avoided the worst, but his victory is narrow. »
The legitimacy of the ballot is debated. Firstly because the abstention rate reached 55%, which means that less than half of the 14 million voters went to the polls. “I no longer believe politicians and their system, confided a resident of Sambizanga, a slum in the north of Luanda. Everyone I know votes for Unita. And yet, he loses…” The opposition party denounced a vote count that did not correspond to its own (it would obtain 49.5% of the vote against 48.2% for the MPLA) and pointed to votes not counted in the province of Luanda, even if it prevails in the capital.
Several observers have also expressed their doubts about the electoral process. Prior to the election, members of civil society expressed their ” concern “ because of lists on which there were deceased voters. Within the CNE itself, four of the sixteen members refused to sign the final results. Several political formations, including Unita, said in a statement on Thursday that they were considering the organization of demonstrations “peaceful” to contest the election. They also reserve “the right to bring the dispute before other authorities” than the Constitutional Court.
The collapse of the MPLA can be explained by the socio-economic context. At the start of his mandate, Joao Lourenço certainly tracked down the billions of petrodollars siphoned off by the family of his predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos, who remained in power for 38 years and whose national funeral was celebrated on August 28.
A charismatic opponent
But the man whom the Angolans call “JLo” then came up against a serious deterioration in the economic situation of his country, in which one inhabitant in two lives on less than 1.90 dollars a day according to the World Bank. After the collapse of crude prices in 2019, Angola, whose oil sector represents 95% of exports and 40% of GDP, then suffered from the Covid-19 pandemic. Today, black gold prices have risen, but in July inflation was still at 21%.
“At the end of the year, Angola will come out of a five-year recession, analyzes Alex Vines, specialist in Angola and director of the Africa program of the Chatham House think tank. If Joao Lourenço wants to revive his party and himself, he must create a more diversified economy and significantly improve the living standards of Angolans. Its outcome should give it the impetus it needs to deepen its efforts to reform the party, government and state. »
During his 8e congress in December 2021, the MPLA has largely feminized and rejuvenated the cadres of the movement in order to broaden its electoral base. “The number of members of the political bureau has doubled, notes Benjamin Augé. The influence of Joao Lourenço will be decisive in 2027, because these new executives will be indebted to him. »
Will the MPLA find Adalberto Costa Junior against him? The charismatic opponent seduced a city-dwelling and connected youth. Through his peaceful speech, he also proved that his party had overcome the trauma of the civil war which opposed the two Angolan political parties from 1975 to 2002 and left nearly 500,000 dead. With 90 deputies in the National Assembly, Unita – which continues to proclaim its victory – will force the MPLA (124 deputies) to negotiate if it wants to obtain a two-thirds majority and make changes to the Constitution. Will they nevertheless constitute an opposition force capable of making itself heard in the public debate and of initiating a political alternation in 2027?