The internal Shia power struggle escalates. Supporters of the populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy the parliament in Baghdad, paralyzing the formation of a government. Many Iraqis fear another civil war.
Supporters of the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr make fun of MPs in the Iraqi parliament.
Iraqi democracy has always stood on shaky ground. The state system, which the Americans were the midwives of almost twenty years ago, has survived both the terror of Sunni extremists and the murders between Shiites and Sunnis, as well as the onslaught of the terrorist militia Islamic State eight years ago, which at times controlled a third of the national territory.
Now the Shiite cleric, politician and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr, who has donned the mantle of reformer and nationalist, could put an end to it. For the second time in a few days, thousands of Sadr supporters stormed the so-called Green Zone, where the government, the UN and numerous embassies are based, and occupied parliament. While they withdrew a few hours after the first occupation on Wednesday, this time they announced an indefinite “sit-in”.
Power struggle among the Shiites
The security forces had previously blocked all bridges that lead over the Tigris to the government district. But the Sadrists simply climbed over the barricades and advanced with excavators to tear them down. Only occasionally did the security forces use tear gas and stun grenades. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi wanted to prevent clashes and called on the Sadrists to peacefully exercise their right to freedom of expression. Despite this, 125 people were injured, including 25 security forces.
Arrived in Parliament, some rioters tore pictures from the walls and destroyed the furniture. The vast majority, however, remained peaceful and amused themselves by aping politicians and slouching in their seats. For a short time it looked as if the demonstrators also wanted to storm the highest court. However, Sadr’s highest representative asked them to retreat.
With the occupation of parliament, the Sadrists prevented a meeting of MPs scheduled for Saturday to move ahead with the formation of a new government stalled since last October’s general election. The background to the storming of the House of Representatives is a bitter power struggle among the Shiites. Both sides have thousands of militiamen under arms, making the situation highly explosive.
Quarrel between Kurds
Specifically, the power struggle is about an old rift between Sadr and Nuri al-Maliki, who was Prime Minister from 2006 to 2014 and used violence against Sadr’s militia during this time. Sadr won 73 seats in the October 2021 elections, making it the largest faction among the 329 MPs. The populist cleric rode the wave of anti-Iranian sentiment, presented himself as an Iraqi nationalist and promised reforms.
Instead of a unity government, he wanted to form a majority government and to this end entered into an alliance with Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the two Sunni parties led by Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-halbusi. However, the plan failed because Sadr failed to get the two-thirds majority needed to elect the president. The dispute between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over the presidency, which has traditionally been held by a Kurd since 2006, also contributed to this. Previously this was a PUK representative, but now Barzani claims it for one of his partisans.
When the highest court confirmed that at least two-thirds of the MPs must be present to elect the president, Sadr called on his elected representatives to resign in mid-June. If Sadr had hoped that his opponents would cave in and build a bridge for him to return to parliament, he was wrong. The seats went to the next in line. Last but not least, pro-Iranian parties like Maliki’s, which the electorate had given a lesson to, benefited from this.
populist and troublemaker
The task of forming a government thus went to a Shiite alliance which, in addition to Maliki’s rule of law party, also includes the political arms of the militias supported by Tehran. However, there was also resistance within the Shiite establishment to a renewed nomination of Maliki as prime minister, since Maliki’s brutal actions against the Sunnis had made a significant contribution to the strengthening of the IS extremists.
Maliki finally lost his chance when audio recordings in which the Shiite hardliner badmouthed Sadr, but also his own allies, were leaked to the public. In the West, Sadr is almost seen as a beacon of hope because of his anti-Iranian rhetoric. But nobody should be fooled: the 46-year-old scion of a dynasty of Shiite clerics is a populist and troublemaker through and through.
Sadr may not be the Iranians’ first choice, but he too has ties to Tehran. After the American invasion in 2003, Sadr set up his own militia, whose fighters were trained and armed by Tehran. They not only fought bitter battles with the Americans, but also killed countless Sunni civilians. Backed by the Americans, Maliki defeated the militia in Basra in southern Iraq in 2008. From this time comes the bad blood between the two.
Iraqis don’t want a theocracy
Sadr’s promises of reform are also tenuous. His followers are at least as firmly anchored in the state apparatus as Maliki’s party. If Sadr really wanted to initiate reforms, he could have done so long ago. Nor are his followers any less corrupt than the rest of the political elite. In contrast to his Shiite opponents, Sadr can count on a loyal following of millions.
Among the demands made by Sadr officials in recent days is a constitutional amendment. In a Clubhouse chat, a representative said Sadr wanted a system like Iran, with a cleric at the helm. There should be no question that he will then claim this role for himself. But it’s certainly not what the majority of Iraqis want.
The Islamic month of Muharram began on Saturday, during which the Shiites commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein. This lends additional force to the Sadrists’ assault on Parliament. In front of the parliament, they set up the tents and stalls typical of Muharram celebrations, where volunteers distribute food and drink. Sadrists held a mourning ceremony in the building – many Sunnis, but also some Shiites, saw this as a provocation.
Iran is struggling with mediation
How to proceed is unclear. The Shiite alliance around Maliki has canceled a planned counter-demonstration for the time being. This could easily have led to clashes between the opposing militias. Of course, this danger has not been averted. Many Iraqis fear that their country is heading towards an internal Shia civil war.
Numerous politicians called on Sadr to take part in a national dialogue. This is exactly what the elite has been preaching for a long time, without any result. Much will now depend on how the Iranians react. Tehran wants an ally in power in Baghdad, but not bloodshed among the Shiites. However, the Iranians have not shown themselves to be good mediators of late – and the stakes are high for the hostile Shia camps in Iraq.