Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Sunday, August 15, an early poll for September 20, less than two years after the last federal election.
“The Governor General accepted my request to dissolve Parliament. The Canadians will therefore go to the polls on September 20 ”, he said from the federal capital, Ottawa. According to Mr. Trudeau, the country is at a “Historic moment” due to the Covid-19 epidemic and it is therefore “Extremely important that Canadians can choose how we are going to come out of this pandemic and how we will rebuild better”.
“I ask you to support a progressive and ambitious government” who advocates “A strong health system, affordable housing and a protected environment”, he added, launching some of the major themes of his campaign.
At the head of a minority government since October 2019, which makes him dependent on opposition parties to pass his reforms, Justin Trudeau intends to surf favorable polls, his management of the pandemic and the success of the vaccine campaign.
The other parties, all opposed to the holding of a poll this summer, have launched into hostilities and denounced a political calculation while the pandemic is not over.
Like other countries, Canada recently announced that it was facing a fourth epidemic wave, due to the development of the more contagious Delta variant. However, the country has one of the best vaccine coverage in the world: 71% of 38 million Canadians have received a first dose and 62% are fully immunized.
The big uncertainty will be the participation
The Prime Minister has complained several times in recent times about the obstruction of opposition parties in Parliament. To be at the head of a majority government, Mr. Trudeau’s party, which has 155 elected members of parliament, will need at least 170 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.
But it’s a “Risky bet” in view of current polls, believes Daniel Béland, professor of political science at McGill University. “The election could be played on a few seats”, he adds and “As this election is clearly Trudeau’s decision, it could cost him dearly in terms of leadership if he fails”.
Facing him, Erin O’Toole, the leader of the Conservatives, the only other party capable of forming a government – 119 deputies at present – suffers from a lack of notoriety among the population but will be able to count on the rural provinces as a reservoir of votes. Jagmeet Singh, who heads the New Democratic Party (NDP), is Mr. Trudeau’s other rival and could garner votes for the Liberals among young people and urban dwellers.
The electoral campaign should largely revolve around the management of the pandemic and the broad emergency aid programs deployed by the government as well as the post-pandemic recovery plan of 101.4 billion dollars (69 billion dollars). euros) over three years. But environmental issues and that of reconciliation with indigenous peoples will also be crucial for this election, which promises to be unprecedented.
Health measures still underway in several states will limit electoral rallies and the great uncertainty will be participation. Moreover, if postal voting is more developed, as is expected due to the pandemic, the result of the ballot may not be known on the evening of the election itself.