For once, the consequences of yet another global shock are not dramatic for Kenya, which has in recent years suffered severely, consecutively, from the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and then the inflationary crisis . Mombasa, its large port, located on the Indian Ocean and which irrigates all neighboring countries in the hinterland, as far as the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been preserved from attacks carried out since mid-November 2023 in the Red Sea by the Houthis, who have greatly reduced the activity of the Suez Canal.
“The impact has been very minimal for us due to our geographic location”, explains Elijah Mbaru, designated general manager of the Kenya Shipping Agents Association (KSAA), which brings together large companies and a number of operators of this key infrastructure for the country, a regional economic locomotive of 55 million inhabitants. Crucial Europe-Kenya trade has continued, bypassing Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, while the ships that connect Asia to Europe, and therefore normally use the Suez Canal, generally do not stopover in Kenya.
Mombasa, underlines KSAA, has even recorded an increase: + 7% on the total volumes operated between the first quarters of 2023 and 2024 and, above all, + 32% in terms of containers, which represents around two thirds of the activity. But, again, this surge is not linked to the crisis in the Red Sea (rerouting of boats avoiding Red Sea ports, for example), insists Mr. Mbaru. “What is particularly increasing is transit cargo to the Great Lakes regions, as these landlocked countries tend to prefer Mombasa to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania,” which is experiencing logistical difficulties, he notes. Before adding that the macroeconomic situation has also improved, the Kenyan shilling having recently recovered against the dollar, revitalizing imports.
Unfortunate setbacks for local industry
On the other hand, following the global trend, freight prices have exploded in the region. A Shanghai-Mombasa journey cost $1,780 (1,640 euros) per 40-foot (12.20 meter) container in October 2023, according to KSAA. It currently stands at $5,000. And the bill rises to reach Kampala, Kigali or even Goma, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. For Jason Reynard, regional director of the logistician AGL (formerly Bolloré Logistics), this additional cost is not necessarily dramatically visible on the shelves, being distributed among the thousands of products contained in a “box”. Even if it is true, he notes, that “any additional cost is partly, if not entirely, ultimately passed on to the price paid by the consumer”in countries where budgets are already very tight.
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