HASAt the end of a flash campaign, marked by the comeback of economic and social issues (inflation, purchasing power), Emmanuel Macron was re-elected on April 24 for a second term. Admittedly, the Head of State, who had been criticized for his often haughty attitude, little in tune with the daily concerns of the French, tried to correct the situation during the interval between the two rounds. While he had essentially insisted, when presenting his program in mid-March, on the postponement to 65 of the legal retirement age and on the conditionality of the active solidarity income at hours of activity, he then focused his efforts to promote more “left-wing” measures: payment of social assistance at source, Macron bonus… The third place obtained by the leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, obliged him, whatever says his campaign team, to give a more social spin to his proposals.
And now ? Pending the appointment of a government and the results of the June legislative elections, it is difficult to predict precisely what the first weeks of the new five-year term will be like. One thing is certain, however, it should start as the previous one ended: concerns about purchasing power will be paramount. The unexpected stagnation of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter and the persistence of high inflation announce the color: in economic matters, 2022 is far from resembling 2017.
At the time, the absence of an inversion of the unemployment curve had prevented François Hollande from representing himself. However, the economic upturn was real, driven above all by pro-business measures. Converted to the policy of supply, with the aim of lowering the cost of labour, the former first secretary of the Socialist Party had set up, at the start of his five-year term, the tax credit for competitiveness and employment, then the responsibility pact, offering companies reductions in employer contributions and tax relief. Corporate margins had returned to their 2007 level, investment was picking up again, growth too. Europe had finally erased the scars of the financial crisis.
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Five years later, the five-year term ends almost on an upside-down front: unemployment has fallen sharply, to 7.4% of the active population at the end of 2021, to the point that the subject has been absent from the campaign and the objective of full employment displayed by Emmanuel Macron does not seem out of reach. But inflation is picking up again, and growth, supposed to be one of the main drivers of budget revenue in the candidate’s project, is slipping.
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