“In the 1990s, people said that if we solved the unemployment problem, there would be no more populism. It doesn’t take the path…”, notes with concern Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa. The polls for the European elections, from June 6 to 9, actually predict a clear surge of the far right, while, on the unemployment front, Europe has experienced a real revolution.
A decade ago, in the midst of the Eurozone crisis, employment was the main concern. Unemployment in 2014 reached 12% in the euro zone, 27% in Greece, 25% in Spain, 13% in Italy, 10% in France. Today, it has been almost halved: 6.5% in the eurozone, 10.2% in Greece, 11.7% in Spain, 7.2% in Italy and 7.3% in France. As for Germany and the Netherlands, they are close to full employment, with unemployment around 3%. In total, the European Union (EU) has 20 million more jobs than ten years ago. “It’s still good news, even if no one seems to be talking about it”continues Mr. Moëc.
Andrew Kenningham, responsible for the European economy for the research firm Capital Economics, also welcomes, “this spectacular growth in employment”but summarizes the problem in one sentence: “Europe has moved towards a slightly more American model, where everyone has a job, but a lousy job. » “Minijobs” in Germany, flexible time contracts, workers on delivery platforms (Deliveroo, Uber Eats, etc.)… Throughout the Old Continent, labor market reforms have multiplied, in order to simplify layoffs, reduce aid to the unemployed, and reduce employers’ obligations.
In France, the El Khomri laws (2016), which reduce the cost of layoffs and reduce the supervision of working hours, followed by the Pénicaud laws (2017), which reverse the hierarchy of standards by giving primacy to sector agreements, fall under this trend. The tightening of unemployment insurance rules, announced in February by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, continues the same logic.
The example of Spain is also telling. In 2022, Madrid invented “discontinuous fixed workers”, a permanent contract, but paid only for a certain number of months per year, depending on the company’s activity (often during the months corresponding to the high season tourism or, in construction, for a new site). The advantage for employees: the company is obliged to call on its “discontinuous employees” when it resumes activity. The advantage for the government: these people fall outside the unemployment figures, even if they experience many unpaid months.
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